China’s manufacturing sector recovers by 49.3% in July, approaching the expansionary zone

china componentes

Bankinter: Manufacturing PMI (July) 49.3 vs. 48.9 estimated and 49 previous. (ii) Non-Manufacturing PMI (July) 51.5 vs. 53.0 estimated and 53.2 previous. (iii) Composite PMI (July) 51.1 vs. 52.3 previous

Assessment: Positive data. Especially because a recovery in the Manufacturing sector, the most affected can be seen. It is still in the contraction zone but it is close to the 50 level. The Services Sector, although it remains in the expansionary zone and in the last few months has shown more strength, is slowing down. The fact that the Manufacturing Sector is regaining strength is good news in a context in which 2Q 2023 GDP was considerably worse than expected: +6.3% vs. +7.1% estimated. The economy is being weighed down by private consumption, weak exports and a weakening real estate market. The slowing trend has led its central bank to cut interest rates: the benchmark one-year rate was cut to 3.55% from 3.65% and the five-year rate to 4.2% from 4.3%. It also cut the weekly refinancing rate. Moreover, additional stimulus measures in the coming months cannot be ruled out.

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