Santander Research : After last week’s stock market collapse of regional bank New York Community Bancorp, in Europe, the alarm bell was sounded by Deutsche Pfandbriefbank. By country, the biggest stock market falls are in French (BNP -14%, SocGen -9%) and German banks; while, in credit, the biggest increases are in German banks (+27bp), followed by Spanish (+9bp), French (+8bp) and Italian (+6bp) banks. The upgrade by S&P of Banco Sabadell’s rating (to BBB+ e) this morning is a good example of the current situation. And while part of German banks remain under pressure due to their exposure to CRE and a very weak economy (Moody’s will today review Germany’s AAA e at market close), entities such as BBVA, BPER Banca and Unicredit have bounced back c7/5% since 30 January after presenting their results. As in the credit world, in stock market indices, the post-NYCB/post-SVB comparison is also similar, and although names like Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (-18%) or DB and BNP fall to double digit levels, the Stoxx600 Banks only drops -2.3% (versus -17.3% post-SVB). In the US the situation is similar: S&P500 Banks -3.8% now versus -18.4% post-SVB.
Spanish banks expand +9 b.p. in credit due to New York Community Bancorp’s collapse against +27 b.p. for German banks
