Litmus test for American and European inflation will be between April and July, when March-June data is published

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Bankinter | The US inflation published today is for February, so we should not expect it to ease because it still compares with months in 2022 before the invasion of Ukraine and, therefore, before the sharp price rises. That means that the real litmus test for inflation (both American and European) will take place between April and July, when the March-June records are published. It was in those months that the strongest inflation rises took place. In particular, in March 2022: +2.4% and +3.0% in Europe and the US respectively, in month-on-month rates. That is why the March figures (to be published in April) will be the first to show (or not) the reduction in inflation due to the “mirror effect”. And this foreseeable improvement is what should allow the ECB and the Fed to adopt a less belligerent stance on interest rates. This, in turn, will allow the market tone to improve. By then, it stands to reason that the SVB affair will have been forgotten without serious consequences and corporate earnings will immediately start to improve. All this will happen by mid-April. In the meantime, the market will bounce this week and then continue to suffer a little. We continue to interpret that situation as an opportunity to position ourselves at somewhat more attractive prices going into December 2023 and even 2024/25. We therefore need to be patient for a few more weeks.

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