According to payroll processor ADP, the U.S. economy shed 32,000 net private jobs in September. This figure compares very negatively with the 50,000 new net jobs forecast by FactSet consensus analysts. Furthermore, ADP reported a downward revision to its August job creation figures; the data now points to a loss of 3,000 net private jobs, compared to the 54,000 net jobs initially reported.
The surprising reversal of the projected growth was partly due to ADP conducting a preliminary annual benchmark assessment of its payroll data. This was based on 2024 results from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and based on unemployment insurance records. This recalibration resulted in a 43,000 job reduction in September compared to pre-benchmarking data. The underlying trend remained unchanged, with job creation continuing to lose momentum across most sectors, the company noted.
The service sector lost 28,000 jobs, mainly in leisure and hospitality (-19,000), professional and business services (-13,000), financial activities (-9,000), and trade, transportation, and utilities (-7,000). These losses offset gains in education and health services (+33,000). The goods-producing sector lost 3,000 jobs due to declines in construction (-5,000) and manufacturing (-2,000).
Meanwhile, the year-over-year wage growth for job stayers remained virtually unchanged in September at 4.5%. In turn, the wage increase for job changers slowed from 7.1% to 6.6%.
