Guest Post by Olivier Debat (UBP) | High yield CDS indices combine a liquidity advantage, an interest rate advantage (no exposure) and a valuation advantage. Thus, we believe that investors concerned about high yield liquidity, its sensitivity to rates or its valuation should switch to high yield CDS indices to gain exposure to the high yield market.
MADRID | The Corner | Although employment is not in the central bank’s mandate, the European Central Bank’s October monthly bulletin focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on euro area labour markets. “Monetary policy is focused on maintaining price stability over the medium term and its accommodative stance contributes to supporting economic activity. However, in order to strengthen investment activity, job creation and potential growth, other policy areas need to contribute decisively.”
MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Potential mismatches between overall demand and supply can provide rather upsetting lessons. As Keynes proved, sticking to stability policies in a recession only widens the gap as slackening demand and production drag each other down in an endless spiraling circle. Moreover, he cast serious doubts on the strategy of combining loose monetary policy with balanced budgets for putting the economy back on track. His liquidity trap theory mirrors Draghi’s current warnings on the ECB’s limits in coping with a huge GDP gap.
MADRID | By JP Marin Arrese | The crash in stocks all over Europe vividly showed how bitterly Draghi’s asset-buying plan disclosed yesterday disappointed investors. Yet, his introductory statement was widely in line with expectations. He broadly delivered last month promise to cash ABS and covered bonds issued by banking institutions, so long as the assets met the standard collateral requirements for ECB facilities. He even took a step forward by extending eligibility to lower than senior debt, the so-called mezzanine tranche. Furthermore, he provided firm assurances the plan would be in place for two years. What turned so utterly wrong? Undoudtedly, the ensuing press conference unfolded into an unmitigated disaster.
LONDON | By Christian Keller at Barclays | China’s official manufacturing PMI was flat at 51.1in September, slightly below Barclays’ forecast (51.3), but marginally above consensus of 51.0. The data reaffirmed the trend of improving external demand, but soft domestic demand. The China PMI data had a limited market impact, with local markets closed for National Day while AUD fell following the weak sales outcome.
MADRID | By J. L. Martínez Campuzano (Citi) | I beg your pardon, I meant to say “persistently low” inflation. If it is not (and here we are in agreement), then why is the ECB repeating the same argument over and over to justify its decisions? Non-existent official rates, negative deposit rates, unlimited liquidity provision for banks, and the latest invention: the purchase of securitised corporate paper for credit operations.
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | Protests in Honk Kong have served to put even more pressure on Beijing’s economy, which is already struggling to maintain growth, boost household consumption and ease credit lending. The last monetary easing by the country’s central bank and the rumours that its governor could be replaced for being too reform-minded has seen certain questions arise. Are they pertinent or just distorting noise?
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Scott Sumner writes “What kind of Great Stagnation?” It seems to me that the Krugman/Summers view has three big problems: The standard textbook model says demand shocks have cyclical effects, and that after wages and prices adjust the economy self-corrects back to the natural rate after a few years. Even if it takes 10 years, it would not explain the longer-term stagnation that they believe is occurring.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Up to this point, investors had scarcely listened to economists’ warnings about world economic stagnation, but in the last number of days the situation has changed as commodities’ prices dropped, with debt and equity markets beginning to exert some pressure.
MADRID | J.P. Marín Arrese | Eurozone policy makers depict sluggish growth and low inflation as two sides of the same coin. This approach fails to grasp the subtle distinction between the two. Muted inflation undoubtedly stems from faltering demand linked to current stagnation. Yet it also reflects the ongoing real adjustment. Reviling it as the main wrongdoer, rather than treating it as a collateral victim, utterly misses the point in enforcing effective policy.