Community jargon shows how mere wishful thinking is turned into what seems a rock-solid reality-to-be. The EU is full of expectations that never materialize. Yet, this shortcoming does not deter officials from bombastically naming policies or mechanisms as if there was no chance they might derail. Just take the rescue label so often applied to Greece. One takes for granted that once you are rescued from peril you can consider…
José Luis Marco, CAPITAL MADRID | Although Spanish banks have little direct exposure in Greece, the country over which hangs the euro zone exclusion threat, something different happens with several European banks: they have a direct interest in the Hellenic country both with their branches in the country and with the assumption of Greek sovereign debt. Some of the biggest banks are partners or shareholders of several Spanish banks. Banco…
Spanish SMEs pay the higher interest rates of the past four years at the time of borrowing, while the cost for German companies is at historic lows, according to financing costs for families and businesses in the euro zone published on Monday by the ECB. This trend puts markedly divergent increasingly southern European companies at a competitive disadvantage to rivals in Northern Europe. “We all know that financing costs are…
As European financial crisis enters a critical stage, should the ECB have the power to supervise all euro zone banks as well as those in non-euro zone countries that choose to become part of a single mechanism or shall it focus on monitoring only the big, systemic banks instead? European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs Olli Rehn believes in the first approach; German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has rejected…
From stable to negative. Moody’s new rating for Europe puts the continent on notice and made some European stock markets slip on Tuesday. According to the agency, Germany, France, the UK and the Netherlands could stop fulfilling their obligations to the EU if the crisis worsens. These four countries account for about 45% of the EU’s budget revenue. “The creditworthiness of these member states is highly correlated, as they are…
By Tania Suárez, Madrid | It seems that September will be a busy month, the beginning of a year full of interesting appointments for investors. As noted from JPMorgan, markets have already priced in aggressive Spanish debt buying by the European Central Bank, “but the risks shall remain high.” Many sources agree that the ECB is not expected to provide many details of the SMP. “There’s not a clear indication…
By Tania Suárez, Madrid | Three resignations are likely to take place soon in the Bundesbank: Weber, Stark and now Weidmann. Barclays experts say “the death rate in this institution seems unusually high.” The Bundesbank is impressive in its power and majesty, but analysists consider “their lack of ability to adapt to the circumstances” is going to lead to its disappearance. Barclays team suggests that “the ECB’s adaptation contrasts with…
By Tania Suárez, Madrid | Global growth will remain below trend until later this year, according to JP Morgan expectations. Rates have dropped less than 50bp from their peaks in 2011 and are projected to fall further 20bp until late 2012. Developed markets authorities believe that “the limit of zero interest rates has eliminated the possibility of conventional action.” Meanwhile, emerging markets with still flexible rates, have “persistently high inflation…
The draft RDL for bank restructuring and resolution is expected to be passed next Friday in Spain. Aimed at preventing new banking catastrophes, the new legislation gives the Bank of Spain and the state-backed Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) new powers to intervene before crises erupt. Morgan Stanley believes the new decree law will drive further consolidation in the sector, which together with extensive liability management at weaker entities,…
Famous for his provocative views on international economics and China’s rise, Andy Xie is an independent economist who predicted the Asian bubble in 1997. Based in Shanghai, he is a former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific analyst. We interviewed him for our summer interviews on China’s challenges, the eurodrama and his forecast for the future. For Mr. Xie, Wall Street bankers are viewed in China as “a bunch of corrupt…