According to BINANCE, there are only 10 days until the next bitcoin halving, when the reward for mining a new block on the network will be halved. The purpose behind these halvings is to limit the supply of new bitcoins coming into circulation, which contributes to bitcoin’s scarcity and deflationary pattern. By limiting supply, it is expected that, if demand continues or increases, the value of bitcoin may also increase…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China is taking a big slice of the cake from its prominent supply role as the world accelerates green transition. This is a rare spotlight of the Chinese economy given the pressure ranging from real estate sales to consumer confidence. China’s production of electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and solar panels, also known as the “New Three” sectors, have experienced fast growth in investment and exports….
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | This year, China’s “Two Sessions” have been particularly important to understand where the Chinese economy is heading as it marked the beginning of a new era, that of Premier Li Qiang. Li Qiang’s first “Work Report” signifies a departure from the previous decade under Premier Li Keqiang’s leadership as Premier, where much more emphasis is put on supply than on demand forces. The focus on…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s economy has been experiencing a structural slowdown, but what is causing concern now is that it is also slipping below its potential and undergoing a cyclical downturn. The faster deceleration in investment compared to consumption, along with weak CPI data, already provides evidence of China’s negative output gap.To assess empirically where China stands with its cycle, we use a model developed by Holston-Laubach-Williams (2023)…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The years of China’s high growth are past, as the world learned painfully in 2023. Notwithstanding the enormous tailwinds stemming from having exited Zero-Covid policies during 2022, the Chinese economy barely reached the underwhelming 5% GDP growth target cautiously set by Premier Li Qiang back in March 2022. The reasons for the very slow recovery of the Chinese economy in 2023 are both cyclical and…
Bankinter : China: poor growth and adverse demographics – GDP 4Q 2023 was 5.2% rather than the 5.3% expected and the 4.9% previous. Retail Sales in December were up 7.4% against the 8.0% expected while Industrial Production was up 6.8% against the 6.6% expected and previous. Analysis: GDP over 2023 has been +5.2%., which is slightly below market expectations, although above the government’s formal target of +5.0%. The weakest indicators…
Julio López (Attitude Gestión SGIIC)| Wittgenstein, the Austrian philosopher who took British nationality in 1939, was once in a train station talking to a friend. Suddenly, the train started to pull away and Wittgenstein ran after it, managing to get on. Behind him stood his friend on the platform. -Don’t worry, madam,” said a station attendant, “there’s another train leaving in ten minutes. -“You don’t understand. He had come to…
The Partido Popular (Popular Party) has published this Tuesday the proposals with which the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo aspires to win the next elections on 23 July. In their 108-page programme, the Popular Party has briefly outlined the axes that will mark the course of their policies. The commitment to adjust the deficit and reduce the debt is the leitmotiv of the document. Changes in legislation on squatting,…
According to Jordi Gual, director of Telefónica Brazil and chairman of VidaCaixa, the biggest problem of the single European market is precisely that, “we still don’t have a single market. Neither in banking, nor in energy, nor in telecommunications… Nor have we created a single risk-free European asset, which is fundamental in the financial markets”. In the next issue of Consejeros, the former chairman of Caixabank gives his forecast for…
Bankinter | Fed members unanimously decide to raise rates by +25bp, the same rate hike they did in February and which compares to the +50bp hike in December. The minutes reiterate the message of the previous meeting that inflation remains elevated and that its deceleration is slower than expected. Strong labour market and GDP growth support price increases. All members approve of raising rates by +25bp and continuing to reduce…