MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | BBVA takes a look on the bright side of the Spanish economy in 1Q14: growth, exports, domestic demand, labor market, public spending reduction. Santander urges the EU to hasten arrangements on SRM to meet Banking Union agenda. Otherwise, stress tests won’t have credibility.
MADRID | By The Corner Team | Greek billionaire, investor, philanthropist and speculator Geoge Soros is well known for his pessimissm towards the euro and his enthusiasm for getting headlines. During a visit to London for his book tour, he made a case against the excess of austerity in the eurozone and critizised the recipes imposed by the German Parliament on its neighbours like Spain.
MADRID | By Francisco López | The climbing of euro against U.S. dollar is increasingly worrying market strategists as it can affect negatively prices and loss of competitiviness in the euro zone. Conversely to the ECB, which has decided not to intervene exchange rate. “It is out of our mandate,” Draghi assured last Thursday, “unless it damages prices’ stability expectations or economy growth.”
FRANKFURT | By Dr. Beate Reszat | The other day, the New York Times provided us with an example of how fads and fashions can be used to draw attention to, and win acceptance for, an economic argument. In his article ‘In Search of a Stable Electronic Currency’ Nobel laureate Robert Shiller proposed the introduction of an inflation-indexed unit of account similar to the Chilean unit of development or unidad de foment (UF) which is existing since the 1960s. The article is in large parts a summary of the ideas of an academic paper the author published in 1998. In short, its main argument says that recent progress in computer technology has considerably widened the possibilities of inflation indexing which would allow for a better pricing, contracting and risk management in an economy.
MADRID | By Jaime Santisteban | Action from the ECB to favor growth and liquidity would be welcomed in the euro zone, where GDP boosted by 0.2 % in 4Q13 after dropping by -0.3% in the prior term. Meanwhile, Sacyr will contribute €30 more million in guarantees to wrap up agreement in Panama and airline Iberia gets to balance offer and demand. Finally, Ibex 35 appreciated by 1.96 % in February and by 1.99 % year-to-date, according to our exclusive market consensus Consenso del Mercado.
MADRID | By The Corner team | Neither the recovery of euro zone leading PMI services index, nor the stability of low inflation levels or financial conditions favouring all the region, including peripheral countries, would justify new significant monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank in today’s meeting. Furthermore, there is not a consensus even within the ECB itself. “Just the continuing appreciation of the euro could make the ECB to take action”, Renta 4’s analysts in Madrid said earlier this morning. As regards central bank’s expectations on inflation up to 2016, Draghi will probably confirm they will continue to be firmly anchored in the medium term, even though levels in the short term are very low.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Overwhelming figures on Spanish unemployment are as unbereable and unjustifiable as difficult to undo. Nevertheless, it is convenient to remember that these numbers start from a structural rate of around 9% which would always distort comparisons with other European countries as well as final conclusions. According to the last European Commission estimates, natural rate of unemployment in the country has increased from 10.9% in 2006 to 23.2% in 2013, which will increase structural figures to 26.6% by 2015. This gives some sort of “apocalyptic view” over Spanish economy’s state, JP Morgan’s says to its clients. Maybe economists at the EC “forgot to make some reasonable adjustments.”
NEW YORK | A guest post by Benjamin Cole via Historinhas |The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks “unit labor costs,” and back on February 6, they came out with their latest report. Usually I look for this report, but this time I missed it. The news? We are in deflation, when it comes to labor costs.
WASHINGTON | Via IMF’s Staff | Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet on the Australina city on February 22-23. The IMF’ s staff has prepared a note as an anticipation of the event. The institution says the recovery is still weak and significant downside risks remain, thus further action and cooperation are needed to promote financial stability and robust economic upturn.
BERLIN | By Alberto Lozano | While Germany was receiving criticism from all sides for its surplus current account, its industry continued setting records and exporting its products all around the world and Euro zone was still strengthening its pillars for a brighter future.