LONDON | Barclays analysts | Central banks will remain in the spotlight this week, with banks in Europe, UK, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Poland and the Czech Republic all set to deliver policy decisions. Of these only the NBP in Poland is likely to move, cutting policy rates by 25bp, in our view. However, most attention will be on the ECB for any hints of future QE, as economic data remain a challenge.
MADRID | The Corner | Regarding the corporate bond purchases by the European Central Bank, market watchers at Barclays consider that it won’t be enough to expand the balance sheet by €1trillion. Expert Alberto Vigil notes that, since investors are already buying corporate bonds, it doesn’t make much sense for the ECB to also purchase them, especially given the fact that asset risks are not exactly cheap. (Graph by Bruegel)
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | While the Riksbank can focus exclusively on Sweden, the ECB has a more complicated task, having to ‘oversee’ a bunch of countries. Both central banks have an exclusive mandate: “Price stability”. While in Sweden that is understood as 2% inflation, in the EZ it is something slightly lower. Nevertheless, the two ‘countries’ central banks acted in tandem, tightening as a reaction to higher than target inflation due to oil price shocks.
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | It comes from Martin Wolf´s “The Shifts and the Shocks” and is reviewed by Paul Krugman in the New York Review of Books. The following passage of his review nullifies the whole thing: In particular, Milton Friedman had convinced many economists that depression prevention is actually a fairly simple task, which can be carried out by technocrats at the central banks that control national money supplies. According to Friedman, the Great Depression occurred only because the Federal Reserve failed to do its job in the 1930s; if it had acted to rescue troubled banks and prevent a fall in the money supply, catastrophe would have been avoided.
MADRID | The Corner | The divergence between the different central banks’ monetary policies is increasing tension in Western financial markets (variable, fixed-income and forex) , leaving many investors clueless. Volatility is expected to increase in the coming months, which will add tension to the picture. In the short term, investors will want to determine if central lenders are correctly interpreting the macro scenario. That is why macro economic indicators which will be published in the coming days have so much relevance. 11 a.m. final reading of euro-area consumer confidence, which remained unchanged at minus 11.4 in September.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | The ECB asset purchases drive has received staunch support from the financial markets. No wonder, as it turns the central bank into a huge and largely undemanding backstop. Under the covered bond programme, it will switch banking liabilities into fresh liquidity. The ABS purchases scheme will transfer loan portfolio exposure to the ECB. Overall, both measures amount to a solid backstop for redressing banking solvency. The move comes most timely, as stress tests and asset quality reviews are due shortly to be published.
MADRID | The Corner | The size of the ECB’s private asset purchase plan is an enigma. According Mr Draghi, the central lender aims to bring its balance sheet to 2012 levels, that is, from the current €2Tr to €3Tr (March 2012). Some analysts believe he went too far in Jackson Hole and the expansion shall not exceed €450bn (see chart above). Meanwhile, the G4 central lenders have increased their balance sheets in $4Tr since 2010- Only the BoJ continues to expand it at a rate of $650bn/year. And even if the Fed starts unwinding its stimulus program in October, if we add about €450bn annual from the ECB would liquidity would be increased by €1Tr.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Even in Sweden, where 4 years ago the Riksbank decided there was “too much debt” and raised rates to “calm people down”. That, as we know, ended in grief and with the head honcho being outvoted (first time that happens) in the last policy committee meeting, when the policy rate was lowered by 50 basis points to 0.25%.
MADRID | The Corner | While the US Federal Reserve may wind back its asset purchases by a further $US10 billion at the end of July, the ECB is ready to launch the first two TLTROs on 18 September and 11 December 2014, with settlement six days later.
MADRID | By The Corner | Corporate earnings season (2Q14) is about to start in Wall Street, with Alcoa opening the way and with the major American market indexes –Dow Jones and S&P 500- at maximum levels. The macroeconomic perspectives of the country will also help, especially after having overcome the impact of the weather on the GDP, as well as the certainty that the Western central banks are committed to support the economic recovery. Thus, investors expect that the official interest rates will keep at very low levels in relative historical terms for a long period of time.