ECB

European economy, In Europe 10th October 2025

ECB minutes suggest cycle of rate cuts over, despite continuing impact of US tariffs

Bankinter | ECB minutes from the 10/11 September meeting. Conclusions: Monetary policy is appropriate to respond to the inflation environment in the EMU and the ECB is in a comfortable position to wait for more visibility on fiscal and trade policies. Everything points to the cycle of cuts having ended for now, even if US tariffs continue to impact growth and prices: ‘the current level of interest rates is sufficiently…

European economy, In Europe 19th September 2025

ECB forecasts lower wage pressures for coming months

Bankinter | The ECB’s Wage Tracker shows an expected wage increase of 1.7% for the first half of 2026 against 2.1% in the second half of 2025 and 4.3% in the first half of 2025. Analysis team’s view: Good news for inflation in Europe. The ECB’s Wage Tracker is a tool developed by the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem to monitor wage pressures in the euro…

In Europe 26th August 2025

Lagarde at Jackson Hole says that immigration has contributed to 50% of European labour market growth over last three years

Bankinter | Lagarde in Jackson Hole. The main messages from the ECB President were: (i) Growth and inflation. She was optimistic about a ‘soft landing’ for the economy thanks to the strength of the labour market and the relaxation of monetary policy conditions. On inflation, she noted that upward pressures still exist, although she expects it to remain anchored close to its inflation target, mainly due to wage moderation in…

Ibex, In Spain 4th August 2025

ECB test shows Banco Sabadell and Unicaja as institutions with greatest capital deterioration

Renta 4 | On Friday, the ECB released the results of the stress test. This exercise, we recall, does not establish a pass/fail threshold, but is designed to provide additional information for the supervisory review and evaluation process. The adverse stress scenario has been designed by the EBA/JERS for a three-year time horizon (2025-2027) and assumes a hypothetical worsening of geopolitical tensions, with very negative and persistent trade and confidence…

European economy 2nd July 2025

ECB to act ‘especially forcefully or persistently’ in face of inflationary shocks regardless of origin

Bankinter | The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced an update to its monetary policy strategy, adopting a more rigorous and agile approach to major inflationary shocks in a context of growing global uncertainty. The main new feature is the commitment to act ‘especially forcefully or persistently’ whenever inflation deviates significantly and persistently from the 2% target, regardless of the origin of the shock, whether temporary or structural. The aim…

European economy 30th May 2025

ECB’s expectations for average Eurozone inflation over next 12 months rise in April to 3.1% from 2.9% in March

Link Securities | According to the monthly report published by the ECB, average inflation expectations in the Eurozone for the next 12 months rose in April for the second consecutive month to 3.1% and from 2.9% in March, standing at its highest level since February 2024. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged in April at 2.5%, while inflation expectations for the next five years stood at 2.1%…

European economy 23rd February 2025

ECB says inflation risks increasingly ‘skewed to upside’ and could consider ‘pauses’ in rate cuts

BancaMarch | The ECB could discuss ‘pauses’ in rate cuts. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB’s executive board, has said that the monetary authority could be close to ending the process of rate cuts in the eurozone, concluding that the risks surrounding inflation are increasingly ‘skewed to the upside’. It should be remembered that, since the summer, the ECB has cut the price of money relatively quickly, and everything…

European economy, In Europe 2nd January 2025

ECB expects to reach 2% inflation target this year

Banca March: The ECB expects to reach the 2% inflation target this year. This was stated yesterday, Wednesday, by the President of the institution, Christine Lagarde, on the X social network. It should be recalled that price growth slowed down last year, even falling below the ECB’s target in September, although prices have picked up again in recent months. The slowdown has allowed the monetary authority to cut interest rates…

European economy 26th December 2024

Lagarde says inflation very close to target, but urges vigilance on services inflation

Norbolsa | Christine Lagarde has declared that they are very close to bringing inflation to target, while warning that services inflation still requires close monitoring. The other focus of questions is around the impact of Trump’s tariff measures, again coming out in defence of free trade and the danger of such policies. The Governor of the Irish Central Bank, Gabriel Makhlouf, also said that Trump’s policies are unpredictable, and is…

In Europe 19th December 2024

ECB highlights strength of European banks with CET1 capital ratio of 15.8%, slightly increases capital requirements by 10 b.p. by 2025

Bankinter: The European Central Bank highlights the solidity of banks and slightly increases capital requirements for 2025. The ECB gives a positive assessment of the sector’s liquidity and solvency position with a CET1 capital ratio of ~15.8% and leverage of 5.8% (capital/total assets). By 2025 it is to increase capital requirements by 10 bps to 1.2% of RWAs (Risk Weighted Assets). Our view: We have a positive assessment of the…

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