Greek market access in two charts

“Greek market access is in doubt given rising country risk premium”

The Corner | April 29, 2015 | Amid speculations about a Greek deal (see examples of the bipolar opinion landscape here and here), market makers seemed more apeased yesterday but still have their doubts about the post June situation. “The yield on 3-year Greek debt remains very elevated and suggests that ‘market access’ is unlikely to be afforded to Greece at acceptable interest rates any time soon,” experts at BNP commented.

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Greece under pressure, expected to reach deal with its creditors today

MADRID | The Corner | Markets seem optimistic about the deal between Greece and its creditors (a government spokesman said they aim to reach a compromise today), although analysts are still wondering whether there have been any advances in the negotiation. “At least the ECB decided to a slight increase in emergency funding (ELA) for Greek banks on Wednesday,” a Barclays’ Alberto Vigil said. “But we still don’t know which reforms the Greeks have agreed on.” The ECB had already raised the ELA available to Greek banks by 5 billion euros to about 65 billion seven days ago.




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Greek crisis: The ECB to take the reins

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | The ECB will be the main actor in the Greek crisis today. The Governing Council of the Frankfurt-based institution is meeting not to discuss monetary policy but to decide whether it maintains the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks, which is crucial so the country can stay in the euro club –something that, in spite of propaganda and short sellers, both Athens and Berlin desire.

Bank of Greece Statue Greek Flag Building

The alternative of (tax-based) capital controls for Greece

By Marios Zachariadis via MacroPolisAt first glance, the potentially catastrophic consequences of Grexit on the rest of the Eurozone provide the Greek government with an important bargaining chip. However, the Greek government should take into consideration that Grexit is not the only possible alternative in case an agreement with the rest of the EZ cannot be reached soon.


Draghi corners Tsipras

MADRID | By JP Marín ArreseTsipras rebellion was ruthlessly quelled by the ECB governing board last night. Neither Greek sovereigns, nor publicly-guaranteed bond issues, will stand as eligible collateral for funding facilities, thus plunging the financial system into a crippling credit-crunch. The emergency liquidity arrangement managed by the local central bank severely caps new public financing to a meagre €3.5 billion amount. The new government faces the unpalatable choice between surrender or bankruptcy.

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Pressure on Greek debt: A nudge or a punch in Athens’ face?

MADRID | The Corner | Despite the markets’  first negative reaction to the ECB’s restricting Greece access to its direct liquidity lines, Morgan Stanley analysts reminded on Thursday that nobody should be that surprised: in 2012, one third of the Greek balance sheets were financed by the ECB, and most via ELA. Plus, Greek banks can still get ECB liquidity if they use ECB eligible collateral.

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Greece is in a league of its own

Morgan Stanley brought up on Friday a clear graph on banking cross assets funded at the European Central Bank liquidity facility or the emergency liquidity assistance tools. One of the conclusions, analysts said, is that “only Greece has experienced a strong bank deposit outflow this year, although it is wo relationship advice rth noting that in Spain and Italy internal capital flows occur, too, towards the soundest and biggest banks.”…