emerging markets

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What are the upside risks for EM in 2015?

ZURICH | UBS analysts | We have painted a fairly sombre picture for emerging markets assets next year. Our base case is that EM debt will generate returns of 0-2%, while EM equities should yield 5-7% returns for USD based investors. The main thesis that underlies this view is that the growth alpha between EM and DM will fall further, with sluggishness in exports a critical concern.


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Russia: the real effects of sanctions

MADRID | The Corner | The EU is considering harder sanctions on Russia after the downing of a Malaysian airliner in Ukraine. What are the effects of the current and potential further sanctions on the Russian economy and, in general, on Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign external debt? Co-CIO Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management’s Asoka Wöhrmann weighs in. (Illustration: Iain Green at The Scotsman)



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Emerging countries: The export performance outlook is positive for the fragile five

LONDON | By Tal Shapsa at Barclays | Our export performance analysis points to a positive outlook for the fragile five of the emerging countries. A simple model we developed – which attempts to gauge future changes in the current accounts based on the export performance indices – suggests that the recent improvement will likely be sustained, providing additional tailwind for EM trades and carry in particular.



Bolsas emergentes

Not all emerging countries are the same

MADRID | By Francisco López | Argentina’s devaluation contagion pulled downwards such different assets as Brazil Stock Exchange, Argentinian or South African currency , or even Indonesia’s bonds. In Spain, the Ibex fell again by 1.1% losing 6.7% points in just six days, which means its hardest time in past twelve months. When panic spreads, investors do not consider each countries’ economic circumstaces individually.


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Peripheral Spreads Should Hold in Well Into Year-end (Barclays)

LONDON | By Cagdas Aksu | The Fed’s dovish surprise in the September FOMC meeting should benefit core peripheral spreads for several reasons. First, we note that even amid all the Fed tapering concerns since May, core periphery spreads versus Germany have behaved very well and never underperformed much, despite the sell-offs seen in other riskier asset classes, such as emerging markets and certain segments of credits markets.


emergingmarkets

Monetary policy: the dam might leak

MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Christine Lagarde’s stern warning on potential problems ahead for emerging countries has been delivered in rather a blunt way: “even with the best of efforts the dam might leak”. At the annual Fed gathering in Wyoming she claimed “further lines of defence” were needed to address a financial crisis. The hike in interest rates following the prospect of a progressive tapering in asset purchases by the US, has induced a sharp reversal in fund flows between developed and emerging markets.



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Brazil: fruitless stimuli

By CaixaBank research team, in Barcelona | Of the events occurring recently on the world economic scene, three have significantly affected the current fate of Brazil's economy. On the one hand, the confirmation of China's economic slowdown in the first quarter; on the other, the progress made in correcting commodities markets and, lastly, more intense tensions in the euro area's debt markets are causing a marked upswing in global aversion…