May 22, 2015 | UBS | Why has real GDP growth been surprisingly weak compared to job gains? Why do some economists expect only slowly-trending GDP expansion in the coming years? Why has the unemployment rate fallen more often than expected?
DUBLIN | By Sean Duffy | With fears surrounding the Eurozone, Russia and the BRICS economies, the only certainty about the year 2015 appears to be that it will continue a period of global economic uncertainty. The Corner takes a look at some of the issues and factors that are likely to dominate the headlines in the year ahead.
By Alberto Forchielli via Caixin | The prospects for growth in the West may be dim, but that doesn’t mean Asia’s developing countries must settle for privation.
By UBS analysts | As the US economic recovery completes its fifth year, direct policy stimulus is no longer being applied, but the economy is poised to move ahead on its own self-generating momentum. Real GDP growth is expected at 2.9% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Less slack in the labor market along with accelerating labor demand should soon be accompanied by somewhat faster wage gains to boost household incomes, confidence and spending. A rising industrial capacity utilization rate should help trigger more sustained gains in capex. And a falling residential rental vacancy rate should further stimulate rents and residential construction.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | This weekend´s G20 summit in Brisbane takes place against the backdrop of growing economic uncertainty. With the Eurozone on the verge of deflation, leaders are likely to focus on the ECB´s next move, as the world –and financials– await some tangible prospect of growth outlook. Corporate taxation –brought on the table again after the Luxleaks scandal– and climate change also likely to feature, despite the claims of host Australia.
MADRID | The Corner | Gloomy inflation data in the eurozone prompted a debate about recovery losing momentum. But while tackling disinflation should be a priority, we shouldn’t be too worried about growth. “Leading indicators of growth are not – at present – consistent with any major slowdown in the world economy. Indicators of financial and monetary conditions and many industrial metal prices are relaying a similar message,”analysts at UBS commented on Thursday.
LONDON | By The Corner | The final estimate of the Barclays global manufacturing confidence reveals another improvement in June, as they had initially expected, from -0.10 to 0.05, the highest level since December last year. As anticipated in the preliminary readings, the rise was driven by improvements in manufacturing activity in the US, Japan and China, where the trend in the forward-looking new orders component suggested it should last well into the second half of the year. At the same time, activity in the euro area showed further signs of momentum loss, with expansion weakening in all the big five except for Spain.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Investor expectations have been slow to incorporate the improvement in global business confidence, and the persistent pessimism presents an opportunity to be long assets that will benefit from an acceleration in global growth.