The end of the summer season is coming to an end with investors returning to markets not looking much different from when they left. We should not take everything for granted but to look at the world from other investors’ viewpoint as well. It is very well to say bond yields should rise because inflation is picking up, but for a manager with a fixed income mandate the question is ‘where?’ they are in the market, no ‘if?’
The markets are still discounting the inflationary impact of Trump’s measures. Furthermore, they are anticipating the positive effects of his fiscal policy, the best short-term guarantee of which is in economic agents’ shift in expectations. Our criticism of excessive complacency on these issues is well-known, although it’s true that the market doesn’t see it that way.