Eusun Cho | Leading up to the Independence Referendum in 2014, one way Scotland sought to differentiate itself from the United Kingdom was through its environmental policy. The Scottish government published a draft interim constitution that separated out the government’s duty to protect the environment in a separate clause.
MADRID | J.P. Marín Arrese | Heavy turnout in the Scottish referendum ensured a clear victory for those rejecting independence. Yet, a huge share of citizens showed their readiness to switch-on the atomic bomb, regardless of the awesome consequences.
madrid | By Álex García
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Bets heavily lean on the No campaign snatching victory tomorrow from the jaws of defeat in the Scottish referendum. Trust professional gamblers for picking out the winning horse. The prospects of a yes vote on independence have suddenly started to look dim.
MADRID | The Corner | FOMC’s conclusions (the Fed is renewing its pledge on low rates) meaning little changes to the current rates scenario, the spotlight has shifted to the Scottish independence referendum (final results to be released around 5:30-6:30 GMT on Friday), which is presumably going to have an impact on European financial markets today. Also the ECB is publishing the results of its much-awaited first TLTRO operation today. It’s the most important cheap cash offer from the central lender since the beginning of the economic crisis which has been very popular in Spain and Italy. Spanish banks will aim for €30bn, Economy Minister said on Wednesday.
LONDON | By UBS Global Research | While there has been considerable attention paid to the impact of an independent Scotland on British government debt ratios, the debate about independence has paid very little attention to Scotland’s starting debt. If an independent Scotland were to take a per capita share of gross debt, it would have a debt burden of around 88% of GDP (after the migration of part of Scotland’s financial sector). Scotland’s initial deficit and the set-up costs for the new state would need to be added to this number.
MADRID | The Corner | Latest published polls in Scotland, in which the rejection of independence is not at 53%, could reassure investors who fear political instability in the rest of Europe. Today will be scarce in macro data. Only wait for August final inflation data in Germany and France, and weekly U.S. jobs data. European stocks will look into Wall Street, which will be setting the pace.
LONDON | By Víctor Jiménez | The financial services industry in Scotland is more than twice as large as that of the rest of the UK when compared to the gross domestic product. But where the unionism points out an unaffordable risk, some analysts see an opportunity. (Image: The first minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond by Robert Perry/EPA)
MADRID | The Corner | The pound fell around 1% against the euro on Monday and the dollar after the results of the first serious poll giving the victory to “yes” in the referendum on separation for Scotland. According to the latest YouGov poll published a day before, the support of Scottish independents would reach 51% vs 49% who are against if the undecided are excluded. UBS economist Paul Donovan commented about the risk of a narrow result in the polls in favor of remaining in the UK, similar to what happened in Quebec in 1995.
ATHENS | Yanis Varoufakis via TrumanFactor | Why an independent Scotland should get out of sterling, but Greece should not volunteer to exit the Eurozone? Scotland should state its intention to decouple from sterling, once independent, rather than petitioning for a continuation of its subservient role in an asymmetrical sterling union. But if this is good advice for Scotland, why am I arguing that Greece should not sever its links with the even more odious monetary union known as the Eurozone? Unless the two cases differ, my argument lacks consistency. But they do differ. Fundamentally too.