Fernando González Urbaneja | How is it possible that, burdened by an unprecedented pandemic, an intense recession and historic EU aid, political groups with power or influence are incapable of reaching a minimum of hopeful consensus? A reasonable explanation would be the mediocrity and selfishness of the leaders. There are data and trajectories that support this explanation. The absence of clear, firm, reasoned strategies for most of the known problems that hinder growth is obvious.
The Spanish Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda will put to Parliament before the summer an initiative to allow for the control of rental prices in those areas which have experienced exorbitant rises. With this measure, town councils and autonomous communities could put temporary ceilings on rentals in those areas where they are considered to have become very expensive. In Berlin, the cap on rental prices came into effect this very week, with the same objective as the Spanish proposal.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Critics warn that the first Spanish coalition government will be a weak and incoherent one. That can be an advantage. Some call it a radical government of “communists” who come to resurrect ghosts of the past. If those guesses are not met, the cabinet will get a clear push forward.
Alvise Lennkh (Scope Ratings) | It is unlikely that the minority government led by the PSOE significantly reduce the structural deficit and debt of Spain, while the proposal for partial repeal of previous labor market and pension reforms could adversely affect employment and sustainability of the pension system. This government coalition does not have a parliamentary majority and, therefore, depends on the support of other parties to pass each law, starting with the next general budget, which will be crucial for the credit rating of Spain (currently in A- / Stable).
Ana Fuentes | The recently appointed coalition government is facing the biggest constitutional crisis of Spanish democracy. With almost half of the parliament against, in addition to criticism within his own party, PM Sanchez has launched an all or nothing bet. If he manages to take a part of Catalan pro-independence supporters to the constitutional path, and ERC renounces unilateralism as Basque separatism did, this will be an achievement for posterity. But the play may go wrong for the Socialists, and it would not be the first time.
Joan Tapia | The latest data indicate that the economic slowdown in Spain is showing some signs of reversing. That is, the slowdown is slowing down and that the economic situation in the coming months may be somewhat better than expected by some of the most pessimistic analysts. The misfortune is that this slight recovery of economic optimism has no correspondence in the political field, as the result of the 10-N elections and the subsequent movements of the parties indicate a very difficult governance.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish politics has become a poker game that has to conclude with the withdrawal of some players to abstention (nationalists) and the sum of favorable cards from others (the left) against the rights. Some variations fit, but they are very unlikely. And another failure that would lead to new elections in 2020 would be possible. But that seems like a catastrophic outcome for all.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Pedro Sánchez, relative winner of the elections (with fewer votes and seats) has chosen the less rugged path to his investiture and to remain in power. He is returning to the original plan, that of the censure vote in June 2017 which allowed him to replace Rajoy. The pact with Iglesias was impossible in the last legislature (from May to June), which passed through months of mutual reproaches. Today it came about in an afternoon; a conversation in the Moncloa between Pedro Sanchez and Pablo Iglesias renewed the model of the pact to remove Rajoy with the argument of creating a “progressive” government, the key word which avoids other more precise words, like a government of the left.
J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Sánchez-led Cabinet will lack any steady support in Parliament for implementing a reasonable policy line.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The possibility of new elections in November is beginning to sound the alarm about the ability of Spanish political parties to form coalitions. The Spanish economy is an animal of great strength which, once set going, is resistant and difficult to stop. So said to me a few months ago a distinguished Spanish economist who presides over one of the most respected think tanks.