The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the first half of 2016. With nearly 80% of the information available for 2Q16, the MICABBVA model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) will have completed one year at around 0.8%. If confirmed, this stabilisation in the pace of expansion would give an upward bias to the growth envisaged in BBVA-Research’s baseline scenario for 2016 (2.7%).
IMF praises Spanish strong recovery but recommends additional reforms to strengthen growth and accelerate the fiscal consolidation.
The Corner | July 23, 2015 | The Spanish economy grew by 0.9% q/q in Q1 15. Q2 data suggest that activity accelerated to 1.1% q/q, taking full-year 2015 growth to 3.3%, on Barclays estimates. “We think that the risks to the Spanish growth outlook are balanced, especially as the likelihood of Grexit has dropped,” the bank analysts commented on their July economic bulletin.
The Corner | July 9, 2015 | Updating its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund cut its world growth forecast (3.3 %from 3.5%) in 2015, downplayed the Greek drama and said it expects Spain to grow more than the US.
MADRID | May 22, 2015 | By Francisco López | The Spanish economy is beating new records mainly thanks to external factors. According to the latest data, exports of goods totalled €23.2 billion in March, the best monthly figure since 1971. The euro price fall has been crucial.
The Corner | April 18, 2015 | The IMF raised growth expectations for all the major economies in the Eurozone – especially Spain to 2.5% in 2015 and 2% in 2016- and for Japan. The new figures, the sixth improved forecast in a row– are more aligned with Madrid expectations (2%, although the Minister of Economy even forecasts a 3% growth). Low oil prices, the euro depreciation and the ECB’s monthly liquidity shots are the three aces of the Spanish government, who is hoping to retain the power in the next general election despite the popularity of new parties.
The Corner | April 7, 2015 | Analysis from Barclays | Spanish composite PMIs rebounded to 56.9 (+0.9 point) in March, as services PMI overshot expectations (57.3) and manufacturing output remained broadly stable (55.5). The services sector’s solid performance (PMI at an eight month high) was primarily triggered by stronger new business.
MADRID | The Corner | Spain’s real GDP increased by 0.5% q/q in Q3 14 (flash estimate), in line with market consensus. Experts at Barclays believe that most of the growth contribution came from domestic demand, as weak eurozone growth in Q2 and Q3 likely implied soft external demand from key trading partners, including from the largest three economies.
LONDON | By Antonio García Pascual at Barclays | The most recent labour market data have been improving at a faster pace than we had envisaged, including results for the Q3 14 Economically Active Population Survey (EAPS). The EAPS shows that employment increased by 151k in Q3 (private sector +155k; public sector -4k). The number of unemployed fell by 195k, standing at 5.4mn. The unemployment rate stood at 23.7% (24.1% sa), compared to 24.5% in Q2 (24.7% sa). The participation rate continues to fall, to 59.4% (sa), albeit at a moderate pace – this is also consistent with ongoing net migration outflows.