The housing stock in Spain would be estimated at 4.1 billion euros in the hypothetical case that all the homes were now on the market, which is a figure over three times higher than national GDP (1.2 billion). This is according to a study by the real estate website Idealista, in which all the houses recorded in the property register are valued at current prices.
Spain real estate
Intermoney | Real estate investment in Spain should increase by up to 25% this year compared to 2020, says a report by CBRE. So investment would be some €12 Bn in 2021, not including corporate operations like the purchase of Quabit by Neinor. However, CBRE expects uncertainty will remain during the first part of the year at the expense of progress in the pandemic vaccination process. Areas such as rental housing, logistics, and other assets such as student and nursing homes are expected to remain on the rise.
Banca March | The Neinor group yesterday announced the absorption of its listed rival Quabit, creating a giant in the residential development sector. The group resulting from the merger will have a land portfolio with a gross value of some €2 Bn for the development of 16,000 homes. Also a gross development value of some €4.5 Bn. The operation will place Neinor behind Metrovacesa and Aedas in Spain’s real estate ranking. Metrovacesa has land valued at €2.626 Bn for the development of 36,000 homes, while Aedas has a land bank of approximately €2.16 Bn or 15,700 homes.
COVID-19 will result in a slowdown in housing transactions of -35% – up to 326.000 transactions in 2020, returning to minimal levels (2012 to 2014). Home buying decisions will be postponed by 6-12 months, and some of the demand will disappear for longer, producing a temporary imbalance between supply and demand.
Spanish real estate still has growth to deliver. Regardless of global economic slowdown, Brexit or trade tensions, we think the country’s competitive labour market should support one of the highest economic growth rates in Europe. Spanish GDP should grow at 1.7% pa over the next three years vs 1.1% in the Euro area, according to BofA economists.
C. Ocaña and R. Torres (Funcas) | After several years of recovery, Spain housing market shows signs of deceleration, opening a debate about whether this is the prelude to the outbreak of a new bubble. At present there is no real estate bubble in Spain and, therefore, the effects of the slowdown in the real estate sector itself and in the rest of the economy will be limited. In other words, in the current scenario, an adjustment can be expected but not a “flat tire” of the real estate sector.
BancaMarch | The amount of mortgages conceded in March rose +23.2% yoy, which implies a slowdown compared to the +31.2% registered in February.
Sabadell | Neinor 8 April´s profit warning was undoubtedly a bucket of cold water, not just because it was unexpected (the consensus expected a lowering of targets), but also because of the scale of the cut (-50% of the Ebitda accumulated in 2019 and 2020). In this note we downgrade our objective price 13% to 13.86 euros/share because of the delay in the delivery plan and because of more conservative profitability hypotheses in the long term. Despite the cut in our O.P. we continue to see value in the share and maintain or recommendation of BUY.
Bankinter | The company announced in its shareholders´ general assembly yesterday that it would be considering creating a Socimi in Portigal that would be consituted before the end of the year.
Bankinter | The sale of houses in Spain fell in January (-0.2% yoy). It is the first drop in the last 11 months and shows a slowdown (from +3.8% in December, +2.8% in November, +15% in October). It is the third time in three years the rate has been negative.