COVID-19 will result in a slowdown in housing transactions of -35% – up to 326.000 transactions in 2020, returning to minimal levels (2012 to 2014). Home buying decisions will be postponed by 6-12 months, and some of the demand will disappear for longer, producing a temporary imbalance between supply and demand.
Spain real estate
Spanish real estate still has growth to deliver. Regardless of global economic slowdown, Brexit or trade tensions, we think the country’s competitive labour market should support one of the highest economic growth rates in Europe. Spanish GDP should grow at 1.7% pa over the next three years vs 1.1% in the Euro area, according to BofA economists.
C. Ocaña and R. Torres (Funcas) | After several years of recovery, Spain housing market shows signs of deceleration, opening a debate about whether this is the prelude to the outbreak of a new bubble. At present there is no real estate bubble in Spain and, therefore, the effects of the slowdown in the real estate sector itself and in the rest of the economy will be limited. In other words, in the current scenario, an adjustment can be expected but not a “flat tire” of the real estate sector.
BancaMarch | The amount of mortgages conceded in March rose +23.2% yoy, which implies a slowdown compared to the +31.2% registered in February.
Sabadell | Neinor 8 April´s profit warning was undoubtedly a bucket of cold water, not just because it was unexpected (the consensus expected a lowering of targets), but also because of the scale of the cut (-50% of the Ebitda accumulated in 2019 and 2020). In this note we downgrade our objective price 13% to 13.86 euros/share because of the delay in the delivery plan and because of more conservative profitability hypotheses in the long term. Despite the cut in our O.P. we continue to see value in the share and maintain or recommendation of BUY.
Bankinter | The company announced in its shareholders´ general assembly yesterday that it would be considering creating a Socimi in Portigal that would be consituted before the end of the year.
Bankinter | The sale of houses in Spain fell in January (-0.2% yoy). It is the first drop in the last 11 months and shows a slowdown (from +3.8% in December, +2.8% in November, +15% in October). It is the third time in three years the rate has been negative.
Private equity fund Blackstone and Banco Santander have injected 300 million euros in the property fund in which both have a stake. The alliance is a mix of societies under the umbrella of parent company Project Quasar Investments 2017, which includes what was previously Banco Popular’s real estate portfolio. Its gross assets are valued at 30 billion euros, with a net value of 10 billion.
Housing sales in Spain increased by 19.4% year-on-year in June to 36,856 units, the largest figure since January 2013.
It’s not really surprising that Spain’s real estate market has become one of the most attractive in the world, given that property prices are still only slowly recovering from an almost 40 percent decline at the height of the crisis, and the country’s economy is now back on the path to growth.