Global Trade

“We do not see data pointing to a recession, for now”

Esty Dwek (Natixis) | Ongoing weakness across manufacturing and trade shouldn’t be a surprise, but service sectors continue to hold up, even showing a small rebound in June. Overall, we expect slower but stable growth around trend levels for the major economies.


trade growth impact

A G20 meeting marred by trade restrictions

 The G20 finance and economy ministers will meet in Fukuoka (Japan) this weekend against the backdrop of trade restrictions. The World Trade Organization estimates that between October and May, 20 new restrictions on world trade have been introduced, worth 335.9 mm. $. These measures are linked to others that previously affected a volume of trade worth 480.9 mm. $, and most worrying is that more restrictions are expected. This compensates, Intermoney analysts argue, the liberalizing measures by value of 397.2 mm. € that were taken in the last months. 

US tariffs

Phyrric US Tariffs: Protect a few at the cost of many

BoAML | President Trump enacted tariffs on imported steel and aluminum with the exception of imports from Canada and Mexico. Domestic metal producers should benefit while the rest of the economy could feel the negative repercussion of higher input prices. The bigger risk is a trade war. The current policy is unlikely to have a big impact. However, a bigger trade war would be a nudge toward stagflation, depressing real growth and boosting prices.