Shaun Riordan | Social media companies may be sophisticated in the way they monetise data, but they remain remarkable naïve, almost innocent, when it comes to politics.
Articles by Shaun Riordan
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Shaun Riordan | The currency markets seem to have given the Turkish Lira a temporary respite. But the underlying problems remain the same: an unsustainable current account deficit; excessive dependence on foreign currency denominated (especially dollar denominated) debt; and high inflation.
Shaun Riordan | Trump’s behaviour at the Singapore Summit with Kim Jung Un has little to do with foreign policy, or indeed North Korea. Like his attacks on allies at the G7 Summit last week, it is aimed at the mid-term elections for Congress. Long-time US allies count for little compared to Trump’s domestic political needs. Europe must take responsibility for its own future.
Shaun Riordan | The motion of censure against Spanish Prime Minister and the election of socialist leader Sanchez as his successor has briefly spooked markets. But in the end it may make less difference than it seems at first sight.
Shaun Riordan | The fate of Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy was in the end settled by the five votes of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). Until yesterday´s debate in the Congress, Rajoy was confident that the Basques, who last week voted in favour of the 2018 budget, would abstain. This would have denied socialist leader of the absolute majority he needed to eject Rajoy from the Moncloa Palace. But this time the Basque Nationalist Party had other priorities.
Analysts increasingly talk of a VUCA world – Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. Companies are waking up to the political and geopolitical threats to their international operations. But too often they limit their response to buying political risk reports on the countries they are operating in, or thinking of entering.
Shaun Riordan | The British have voted decisively to leave the EU. The demographics of the referendum suggest that ordinary voters wanted to give the metropolitan elite kicking. For the British, this was their Trump moment. But now begin the months and years of uncertainty. This is not a single event which markets can price in, but rather a process which will continue to drive volatility in currency and equity markets for the foreseeable future.