Mark Callender (Schroeders) | Some real estate investors believe the successful working from home experiment during this crisis will lead to a long-term decline in demand for offices. We think this is premature. New technologies such as blockchain, robotic process automation and voice recognition probably pose a bigger threat to the office. However, the demand for offices in city centres and close to universities should continue to increase, driven by the growth in tech, life sciences and professional services.
Articles by The Corner
Janwillem Acket (Chief Economist, Julius Baer) | Even though the June figure of overall non-farm job creation in the US (to which all the major segments of the economy contributed) is a historical high since the records started in 1939, there are bitter aftertastes. In fact, continued jobless claims until 20 June, i.e. during the period of data collection for the non-farm jobs, actually rose to 19.29 M, from 19.231 M a week earlier, and the four-week average until 27 June was still at 1.504 M, only slightly down from 1.621 in the previous week.
Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, WisdomTree | While we don’t envision the UST 10-year yield revisiting the aforementioned 2018/2019 levels any time in the foreseeable future, it no longer has the same tailwind speed ‘at its back’ when ‘thinking globally’.
These branches, which have already received the relevant opening authorisations, are part of BBVA USA’s five-year strategic plan announced a few months ago. “Although the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the migration of operations from branches to digital channels, in the short term and perhaps beyond, the truth is that banking is a people business,” said Larry Franco, head of retail banking for BBVA USA.
The state reference system for rental price indexes, which indicates that Madrid, Barcelona, Malaga, Valencia, Malaga, the Canary and Balearic Islands are the main “stressed” areas, has 11.2 million data on rentals for the last four years. It will be updated annually with information on 1.7 million properties and 33,662 census sections.
The market capitalisation of Spain’s six leading banks has slumped by approximately 53.11 billion euros. All the lenders recorded declines in their share prices, which ranged from 39.3% for CaixaBank to 54.9% for Banco Sabadell. The combined market capitalization of the six banks at the end of the first half was 76.398 billion euros, compared to 129.509 billion end-2019.
Trihn D. Nguyen (Natixis) | Currently, 32% of government bonds are held by foreign investors and the price of that debt is 5.4% for the 2-yr and 7.2% for the 10-year. Even after Bank Indonesia (BI) embarked on rate cuts of 75bps in 2020 to 4.25% and outright purchases of government bonds, the government is asking the central bank to take one step further and buy 60% financing needs in 2020 at zero interest.
Amadeus continues to raise financing in the current difficult situation. The EIB’s loan’s principal will be used to finance research and development activities for a variety of new technology solutions for airlines, airports, travel agencies and railways. The company will carry out this R&D in 2020-2021.
The recovery in employment in Spain is proving to be a struggle at best, and a mirage at worst. The data shows that the trend in unemployment growth is slowing: unemployed in June rose by 5,100 people compared to 26,573 the previous month, 282,891 in April and 302,265 people in March. However, this month of June was the worst since 2008. The figure continues to exclude workers who are suspended from work or whose hours have been reduced as a result of a temporary layoff scheme.
Matilde Mas (Funcas) | Since the beginning of the 21st century, productivity growth has experienced an almost generalized slowdown, albeit of unequal intensity, in most developed countries. And this is despite the accelerated process of innovation accompanying the Fourth Industrial Revolution. It is the phenomenon known as the productivity puzzle. Among the large EU-15 countries – Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK – the general pattern has been a slowdown in labour productivity since around 2005.