Bankia Estudios | Spanish GDP slows more than expected. The provisional GDP data for Q219 has disappointed, by registering a quarterly growth of 0.5%, one tenth below our forecast and the Bank of Spain´s estimate.
Caixabank Research | The Spanish housing sector is entering a more mature phase in the cycle, characterised by a weakening in growth in demand and prices. The factors which support the expansion of the housing market (creation of employment, favourable financial conditions and elevated external demand) continue evolving positively but are losing dynamism.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism, Spain´s trade deficit in May 2019 rose to 13.179 Bn€, an increase of 8.6% yoy. In this period, the coverage rate (exports compared to imports) was 90.3%, compared to 90.8% in May 2018.
Analysts believe this tightening makes sense due to the strong growth in credit consumption in recent years. The metrics for the concession of mortgage credit which already had the highest Loan-to-Value (LTV) in recent years, much higher than in the years of the housing bubble.
Banc Sabadell | The provisional government in Spain, if its finally confirmed in office, will immediately renew most of the Council of the competition regulator (CNMC – six of the ten council members end their term in September 2019) and open the door to restructuring the body.
Chinese investment in Spain has reduced drastically in the first of half of 2019, falling to a modest 10 Mn$, according to a study published by Baker McKenzie.
BBVA Research | The recovery of the Spanish economy will continue during the two years 2019-2020. In fact, and despite the risks which still hang over the scenario, growth expectations have been revised upwards one tenth to 2.3% for 2019 and remain at 1.9% for 2020.
J.L.M. Campuzano (AEB) | The Bank of Spain has published the financial accounts for the Spanish economy at the end of the first quarter. Consolidated household and company debt fell in the first quarter to 132% of GDP, 4.1 percentage points below the rate the year before. Company debt represents 74.4% and that of households 58.4%.
Philippe Waetcher (Ostrum AM – Natixis) | Spain has recovered strongly since 2013. Probably as a reaction to the deep fall of the Spanish economy in 2008 and after the 211-2012 period. This reaction explains the strong performance of the Spanish economy observed in recent years.
From 21 July the regulator (CNMV) will no longer require an expert report on the emission of bonds or structured products aimed at retail investors to ensure the accuracy of the associated brochure. The new European norm on brochures will come into effect on 21 July, so the need for this requirement, which CNMC decided to seek in 2005 for Spanish shares, will disappear.