Wednesday’s graphic: the rat behind US employment numbers

Barclays analysts’ sent a warning about expectations over US employment data, which experts do not quite think are accurate. Ahead of the publication of official figures next Friday, here is a line we mustn’t forget: the white line depicting small and medium companies’ intentions of hiring.

“Upcoming employment data could reveal the actual situation of the US economy,” the Barclays team said. “During February, we have noticed that employment numbers do not match investment trends in the US. If companies do not invest, it is unlikely that they hire.”

Does a not-hiring attitude mean that a firing wave is on its way?

“Not necessarily. In all probability, we are going through a phase in the cycle in which unemployment will not grow, but neither will employment. Check the Sboihire Index or SMEs’ prospects of hiring, which has experienced a dramatic drop…”

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