Santander| Not only credit card volumes have jumped to record highs ($1.1trn) with the drain on the savings rate. Overdue (10%) and very overdue (90+ days) debt rates are also jumping, already at more than 10-year highs: 6.4% vs 4% in 4Q22. This phenomenon, still not very visible in the economy, is also starting to spread to global default rates. And not only because we are facing the highest number of defaults in January-February since 2009 (29) and Europe is responsible for the jump (8 from 0 in 2022 and 3 in 2023). If we were to annualise this data, with c.175 defaults in 2024, we would be facing the worst record after the bursting of the internet bubble (2001, 191), the jump during the financial crisis (2009, 285) and Covid (2020, 218).
January-February defaults figure -29- not seen since 2009
Image from page 185 of "Thackerayana;" (1875)
