Bankinter : No news from central banks until Jackson Hole (24/26 August). This week, RBA (Australia, Tuesday) and BoE (UK, Thursday) will probably follow the same pattern as the Fed and the ECB, rising +25p.b, linking next steps to the macro data yet to be known. If so, the main drivers for the stock markets will be corporate earnings and macro data (inflation, GDP and employment).
This week, companies of some importance will still be releasing their results. In the US we highlight Apple, Amazon, Fortinet, On Semiconductor and VF Corp; and in Europe ING, Infineon, AXA, Ferrari, Adidas, Vonovia, Maersk, Commerzbank and Credit Agricole, among many others. The overall tone is likely to remain constructive.
On the macro front, later today we will see eurozone CPI slacken again in July to +5.2% year-on-year vs. +5.5% previously, while GDP is holding up reasonably well (+0.4% year-on-year estimated for 2Q 2023). In the US, on Friday we will have Employment data, with the Unemployment Rate likely to remain at minimum levels, close to the previous 3.6%, Non-Farm Job Creation stable and even decreasing slightly, and wage increases somewhat more moderate.
A favourable environment for stock markets: (i) No news from central banks and some probability of a pause in September; (ii) Lower risk perception in US regional banks; (iii) Constructive corporate earnings; (iv) Macro reflecting a moderation, albeit very slow, of inflation with economies holding up. All in all, barring any surprises, stock markets are likely to hold up reasonably well.
We should take advantage of any small correction, whether one-off or due to profit taking, to take positions.
