The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole world, including Spain. Spain will grow by 4% in 2022, which is eight tenths of a percentage point lower than the forecast published in April. The fall in GDP will be more pronounced next year if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues.
According to the report ‘World Economic Outlook’, published on Tuesday, the IMF considers that in 2023, Spain will post an annual growth rate of 2%, which is a sharp reduction of 1.3 points compared to the forecasts of three months ago.
The IMF downgrade comes on the same day the Spanish government published its own forecasts. The government has decided to leave its GDP growth forecast for 2022 unchanged at 4.3%, while for 2023 it has been set at 2.7%, eight tenths of a percentage point lower.
In the euro area as a whole, growth this year will be 2.6%, two tenths of a percentage point less than previous forecasts. The IMF has explained that the large improvement in Italy’s outlook (seven tenths more, up to 3% in 2022) due to expected improvements in tourism and industrial activity, has not been able to offset the declines in Germany, France or Spain.
Thus, the Fund estimates that Germany’s growth will be 1.2% in 2022, nine tenths of a percentage point less, while France’s will stand at 2.3%, six tenths of a percentage point less than the forecasts published in April.
Looking ahead to next year, the forecast for the euro area has been revised down by 1.1 percentage points to 1.2%.
With regard to Europe as a whole, the Fund has pointed out that a complete halt to Russian gas exports would significantly affect inflation and lead to energy rationing. This, in turn, would reduce euro area growth further this year and next.
