Bankinter | Preliminary CPI rises less than expected in September. Year-on-year 1.2% versus 1.3% expected versus 0.9% in August. In month-on-month terms, negative 1.0% versus negative 0.9% versus a rise of 0.4% previously.
Producer prices rise (year-on-year) 0.1% versus 0.5% previously (revised from 0.4%). In month-on-month terms, down 0.2% versus 0.5% previously (revised from increase of 0.4%). Finally, consumer spending (year-on-year) fell 0.8% versus 0.3% expected and 0.4% previously (revised from 0.1%).
Analysis team’s view: Inflation is rising, but less than expected. This rise is due to price increases in the services sector, which offset the decline in energy prices. In any case, it is well below the ECB’s target of 2.0%. Also noteworthy is the decline in consumer spending, which is reasonable in a context of high political uncertainty due to government instability, which inevitably impacts confidence, GDP growth and inflation.
