Bankinter | OPEC estimates that there will be an oil surplus of 20,000 bpd in 2026, which contrasts with the deficit forecast in previous reports: 70,000 bpd in September and 50,000 bpd in October. Yesterday, Brent fell by almost 4% for this reason. This contrasts with what the International Energy Agency (IEA) published the day before: global demand for oil and gas will increase over the next 25 years, as countries’ commitment to climate change has been reduced. To date, they estimated that demand would peak in this decade.
Analysis team’s view: This surplus is not only due to increases in OPEC production but also to those of other countries such as the United States and Brazil. Furthermore, the surplus is considerably lower than estimates by other organisations. For example, the IEA estimates that overproduction will be 4% in 2026 (4% of global demand). In this context, we reiterate our Sell recommendation for the sector. We believe the trend is bearish in a context of falling demand, global overproduction, alternative energies and increasing energy efficiency.
