Analysts at BofA Global Research still expect the global oil market to move into a 4.9mn b/d deficit in 4Q20 on the back of the OPEC+ cuts, supporting crude prices. Yet diesel and jetfuel/kerosene make up by far the largest petroleum product group in the oil market. So crude oil prices cannot really rally until distillate demand, jet fuel included, recovers to more normal levels in the next few months.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | One of the most exciting stories of the world economy in 2002 is the oil price collapse. David Fyfe, chief economist of one of the world’s largest suppliers of raw materials’ prices, Argus, is aware that the oil market is not going to be the same after this collapse in demand. It will take years for prices to recover – if they do – and US production will be lower.
Nitesh Shah (Wisdoom Tree) | OPEC+ had been readying itself for an earlier-than-originally scheduled meeting. That drove oil prices higher. However, disputes about compliance levels with quotas are casting doubt on moving the meeting to 4th June. If the meeting does go ahead this week, oil prices are likely to recoup intra-day losses on 3rd June. That could take Brent above US$40/bbl and WTI above US$38/bbl.
The decision was announced last October and came into effect in the new year. The Government of Lenín Moreno decided to leave the cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, to escape the procuction cuts, with which the organization intends to boost oil prices. Oil is the second largest source of income for Ecuador’s coffers.
Countries in the Declaration of Co-operation (DoC, also known as OPEC) met in Vienna last week and announced a 1.2mn b/d crude production cut from an October 2018 baseline. In the end, OPEC interests came out first, as expected, and the rest of the world came second.
For any investor who believes that $70/barrel is more or less the right price, then the European oil firms are currently fairly priced. Alphavalue recently upped their earnings forecasts to include $70/barrel as a new normality. This leaves the sector with an upside potential of +6% on a 6-month horizon.
BARCLAYS | The Doha meeting, among 16 oil producers (OPEC and non-OPEC) concluded on Sunday, without an agreement on a production freeze. The much-awaited meeting exposed the political rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and ultimately doomed the agreement. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela agreed on a draft in advance to be put forward to the group, but the Saudis changed their stance on Sunday morning.
Global oil demand in 2015 is set to grow at the fastest pace in 5 years, underpinned by the economic recovery and low oil prices.
July 15, 2015 | UBS | Lifting sanctions would add more production to an already oversupplied market.
How will the recent plunge in oil prices affect Asian countries?