Link Securities | According to OPEC’s monthly report, global oil demand will grow by 2.2 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2024, which means that the cartel’s analysts have maintained their estimates from the previous month unchanged. Thus, demand for crude oil will reach 104.4 mbd in 2024. In that year, according to OPEC, demand will be driven by strong demand for air travel and healthy road mobility, including diesel and road transport, as well as industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries. By 2025, OPEC expects crude oil demand to grow at a rate of 1.8 mbd.
On the supply side, OPEC expects non-OPEC crude oil production to grow by 1.3 mbd in 2024, to an average of 70.4 mbd. Thus, these analysts expect the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan to be the main drivers. In addition, together with US shale basins, which account for about 49% of expected non-OPEC oil supply growth, offshore projects, mainly in Latin America, are expected to support supply growth in 2024, while production is expected to fall the most in Mexico and Angola.
