UBS | In recent notes (” Trouble down the line “, ” The outlook for OPEC production capacity “) we detailed the meaningful slow-down in activity we are seeing across the industry. This is being driven by a reassessment of portfolios, on grounds of affordability and in reaction to structural and cyclical deflationary dynamics. In this note we show the effect of this slowdown on investment levels. The results have been dramatic.
UBS | In this note we present our updated analysis of OPEC production capacity. On a headline basis the numbers are alarming – we expect the group to add close to 1Mb/d to its effective production capacity in 2016 and then a further 0.6Mb/d in 2017. Over the 2015- 20 period we expect total additions of 2.1Mb/d
UBS | Last week’s 168th ordinary OPEC meeting in Vienna concluded without the group agreeing on any meaningful change in strategy. Contrary to an earlier wire report that the group was to lift its target outp ut ceiling to 31.5Mb/d the defining feature of the official release was the lack of any explicit reference to either the quota or to actual production.
Global oil demand in 2015 is set to grow at the fastest pace in 5 years, underpinned by the economic recovery and low oil prices.
July 15, 2015 | UBS | Lifting sanctions would add more production to an already oversupplied market.
How will the recent plunge in oil prices affect Asian countries?
MADRID | By Ana López-Varela | “The OPEC will not cut production even if the oil barrel drops to $20.” The intentions of the Saudi Oil Minister, Ali al Naimi, are stark. But, how will the OPEC’s decision of maintaining the production quota at 30 million barrel per day affect the markets? And which are the forecasts that market watchers have regarding the oil? In general, they expect the prices to increase. However, futures traders remain more conservative.
MADRID | The Corner | “It’s not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is… Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50,$60, it is irrelevant, ” Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al Naimi said in an interview with Middle East Economic Survey, quoted by Reuters. He sent oil prices tumbling below $60 per barrel. The oil crisis is causing violent and undesirable market volatility.
MADRID | The Corner | Oil prices continue to fall ahead of the much-awaited OPEC meeting today, which will start at 9:00GMT –a press conference will be held at 15:00GMT. Brent crude and WTI both fell to four-year lows on concerns that oil producers will not make the large supply cuts needed to contain the slide. Analysts at Barclays believe that with an absence of basing signals for WTI crude, the risk remains lower towards 70.76. Will the oil cartel react?