Bankinter | Layoffs increased in November by 23.5% year-on-year to 71,321 (versus 48% and 85,436 expected) according to Challenger. Layoffs eased compared to October levels of 153,074, but remain at historically high levels. Since 2008, only in November 2022 had layoffs exceeded 70,000 in a single month. For the year as a whole, layoffs are up 62% on 2024 levels. The sectors most affected in November were telecommunications (21%) and technology (17.3%).
The main reasons cited were restructuring, mentioned in 28% of cases, and market and economic conditions, mentioned in 22% of cases. For the year as a whole, the most frequently cited cause was the ‘DOGE impact’, mentioned in more than 25% of redundancies.
The adoption of AI, which in October was responsible for nearly 20% of layoffs, accounted for only 8% this month. With regard to hiring, 497,151 (down 35% year-on-year) were announced through November, the lowest level since 2010.
Analysis team’s view: despite the improvement in data compared to October, layoffs remain at historically high levels (5-year average 57k and 10-year average 64k), which, together with the worst level of hiring since 2010, reinforces the narrative of a cooling labour market. The market is currently pricing in almost 100% certainty of a rate cut by the Fed at its 10 December meeting.
