Nicholas N. Eberstadt, an expert in demography, asserts that “the world is entering a new phase of depopulation”. “The total number of births in China last year was probably not seen for three centuries. In Italy, we are at levels last seen in the time of Leonardo da Vinci. And in Spain, such a low level as last year’s had never been recorded before. In fact, statistics dating back to 1858 show that the figure back then was double the current level,” he stated at a conference at the Ramón Areces Foundation.
By Consejeros Editorial Team
At a lecture at the Ramón Areces Foundation, organised in conjunction with the Royal University Institute for European Studies at the University of San Pablo CEU, this professor of the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute asserted that this new phase in demographics is being driven not by health crises, but by a sustained decline in birth rates. The title he had chosen for his lecture –‘Global depopulation: whether we are prepared or not, it is already here’– already foreshadowed these arguments.
“If every woman has fewer than one child, the population tends to shrink.” Using comparative graphs, he showed how Africa remains above the replacement level, but “the whole of Asia and the whole of Latin America – not just Europe and North America – exhibit fertility patterns insufficient to maintain long-term population stability”. He illustrated this shift using the example of India and a personal experience: “When I was young, I visited Kolkata. It seemed as though there was nothing but children. Today, India is a society below replacement level – perhaps 15 per cent below – and in the major cities the levels are well below that.” At present, “Kolkata has a lower fertility rate than Berlin,” he added.
“Between 1980 and 2020, almost all countries have seen huge declines in their birth rates, and many are now below the replacement rate,” he summarised. Citing data from the UN Population Division, he highlighted the historic shift that has taken place: “In 1950, less than 5 per cent of the world’s population lived in countries with birth rates below replacement level. Today, more than 70 per cent – almost three-quarters – live in countries below that level”. He emphasised that “the typical profile of humanity today is to have fewer than two children per woman”.
The case of Spain
Regarding Spain, Nicholas Eberstadt presented UN data series which place the country closer to a situation of low fertility than to one of moderate recovery. “In the low-variant scenario, Spain in 2050 would have more people over the age of 80 than under the age of 18”, he explained, with a profound shift in the age structure: “Far more older people, far fewer people of working age and significantly fewer children”. That would be the summary.
Among the consequences of this situation, he predicted a shrinking working-age population and rapid ageing: “Small families are currently the main driving force.” This demographer and researcher took the opportunity to call for calm: “There is no need to be afraid. Following the population boom, famines and collapses were predicted. Today, there are more than twice as many people as in 1968; the world is richer, better educated and healthier, and the cost of food, adjusted for inflation, is lower.”
In this vein, he attributed this prosperity to three factors: health, education and the creation of knowledge. On the subject of education, he compared global educational attainment profiles from 1970 and 2020 to state that “the proportion of people without an education has fallen in absolute terms, and the segment with higher education is the fastest growing”. Regarding knowledge, whilst acknowledging the difficulty of measuring it, he emphasised the leap in progress: “We can now go to the Moon and beyond”.
In conclusion, Nicholas N. Eberstadt spoke in a cautiously optimistic tone about human capabilities and the challenges facing a shrinking society: “We have already figured out how to produce in abundance, and that is something we will not forget, barring a civilisational catastrophe. But a world facing depopulation will not, on its own, satisfy our search for meaning, values, love and truth. Metaphysical challenges may prove more dramatic than material ones”.
