MADRID | The Corner | Thursday was shelter assets’ day due to the tragedy of the Malaysian Airlines passenger hit by a missile in Ukraine, the hardening of the Russia sanctions and the worsening of the conflict in Palestine, analists at Bankinter commented. The Bund reached a new historic low of 1.14% (the previous record was 1.17%) and the yen and Swiss franc appreciated up to approx. 137 and 1.214 respectively.
NEW YORK | By Markus Jaeger via Deutsche Bank Research | The US today, like Britain under the gold standard, acts as the world’s banker. It is the most important source of international liquidity, leading countries to hold USD-denominated assets. Not only does this allow the US and especially the US Treasury to tap into a large investor base ready to finance current account and fiscal deficits at a lower cost. To the extent that the demand for international liquidity and USD assets exceeds the US balance-of-payments deficit, it allows the US to recycle short-term foreign liabilities into long-term assets.
SHANGHAI | Op-ed by Hong Hao at Caixin | Relaxing restrictions on property purchases, reintroducing discount mortgages or even further monetary easing are likely, given the importance of the property sector in the economy and its multiplier effects. No one is willing to be held responsible for an ugly crash in China. This is one certainty among the many uncertainties that the market is facing. But nor is anyone willing to inflate the property bubble further.
COPENHAGUEN | By Peter Lundgreen via Caixin | In China, the right phone app can get 30 to 40 million users in six to 12 months. The focus on exporting goods to this market ignores the contributions Europeans could make in the dynamic tech sector.
MADRID | The Corner | Inflation in Brazil hit the upper limit of the government’s target for the first time in a year in June: consumer prices rose by 6.52% yoy (IPCA index), airlines’ fares skyrocketed because of the World Cup (almost 22% in June from May). But let’s be fair: only half of the monthly inflation came from the football competition. And prices will remain far from the 4.5 percent target beyond 2015 unless the central bank rises rates further.
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | Everyone is commenting on BNP Paribas historic settlement and the eventual fines that other EU banks might face (read our yesterday’s post), and the missed opportunity to really punish their illegal practices. And yet no financial savvy is talking about Iceland’s Reykjavík County Court handing out severe prison sentences to four bankers for market manipulation and breach of fiduciary duty. As London-based Icelandic reporter Sigrún Davíðsdóttir explains, “this case is not one of the big ones involving major investors or bank managers (…), but there are other similar cases snarling their way through courts.”
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | Despite British PM David Cameron’s intense campaign against him, Jean-Claude Juncker was chosen as European Commission new president on Friday with 26 out of 28 heads of states’ votes. Candidate of the centre right European People’s party, the largest group in the parliament, and a veteran EU deal-broker, Luxembourg’s former PM vows for increasing the power of Brussels and reducing the voice of nation states. He’ll be officially appointed on July 16 with the strong opposition of the EU’s financial centre.
MADRID | The Corner | As global confidence revives and money is in the air, more deals are expected. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, which grew year-on-year to $1.45tn in 2013, will rise to $1.6tn in 2014, $1.75tn in 2015 and $1.85 tn in 2016, according to the last U.N. economic think tank UNCTAD report. Spain is one of the EU’s most benefitted recipients attracting $39 billion from vulture funds, venture capital, billionaire families, pension plans or even sovereign funds.
MADRID | The Corner | After being accused to send mixed signals to the markets (one British MP even compared him to an unreliable boyfriend), Bank of England’s governor Mark Carney backed off and played down the chances of raising interest rates. After all, Bundesbank’s Jens Weidmann may be right: cheap money can be as addictive as a drug.
SANTANDER | By Ana Fuentes | European Commission President José Manuel Durao Barroso chose his last days in the job to dot the i’s and cross the t’s. Surprising many by his candor, he directly accused the Bank of Spain of making “important mistakes” supervising the financial sector. “It was not the EU nor Ms Merkel who originated the crisis,” he said.