MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Draghi’s performance in Jackson Hole has largely overshadowed other central bankers. Undoubtedly he surpasses himself in summertime. Just remember his landmark defence of the Euro back in August, 2012.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Spanish Finance Ministry published on Thursday a regional breakdown of public income and expenses, aimed at rebuking unfair fiscal claims from Catalonia’s regional government. The move comes a few days before its chairman, Artur Mas, meets Prime Minister Rajoy in a last ditch attempt to defuse the current rift over self-rule. It has already being hotly contested by Mr Mas, as an open challenge to his core request for better budgetary treatment. It will hardly contribute to a favourable climate before that key meeting by closing the door to any face-saving outcome based on buying time in exchange of extra money.
MADRID | By J. P. Marín Arrese | Water and power supply would be secured should Catalonia become an independent nation. That’s the only reassuring conclusion the economic think tank set up by the regional government has recently reached. On handling monetary and financial issues, it points to severe problems ahead.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | The troubles faced by Banco Espirito Santo ’s main share holding group have delivered a widespread blow to financials and periphery sovereigns. A nasty reminder that Eurozone doesn’t seem so stable as everyone bet it was. Investors are flying to safety, pushing the US Treasuries and German bunds close to past records. Stock exchanges and market sentiment are bound to undertake brisk U turns, at no warning. The more so as sharp and continued rises always offer a good excuse for a sell-off. There is nothing to worry about.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Mario Draghi unveiled the requirements to be met for drawing cheap money from the targeted long-term facility on Thursday. Those look extremely loose and scarcely demanding. Banks may cash up to 7% of their net lending to businesses and households in the auctions scheduled later on this year. A move that could lead to a massive €400 billion funding injection, should bidders make full use of their potential rights. Borrowing four-year tranches at interest rates so low as 0.25%, seems indeed an unbeatable incentive.
MADRID | JP Marín Arrese | The revised growth figure for the US economy in Q1 comes as a nasty surprise. It has dampened market sentiment worldwide. Earlier assessments blaming bad weather the moderate setback no longer hold when faced with a downturn close to 3%. Even discarding a fallback into full-fledged recession, it undoubtedly points to a markedly weaker performance than expected. The Fed tapering strategy is confronted with a baffling dilemma.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Euphoria is back in the markets following the ECB substantive package. The prospect that money will flood the financial system has significantly reduced the rate differentials between the Eurozone peripheral and core countries. Squeezing the channel for overnight interbank lending has brought the Eonia to fresh lows. [Graph: Eonia’s evolution in the past year]
MADRID | By JP Marin Arrese | A couple of years ago, Draghi rescued the Euro from its plight. Yesterday, he saved Europe from a protracted economic performance. By delivering more than expected by markets, he changed the rules of the game in monetary policy. His bold rate cut bringing funds hoarded by banking institutions into negative territory seems close to unconventional manoeuvring. His targeted 4-year massive 400 billion liquidity injection will prop up credit to enterprises and individuals, providing a robust boost to growth.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Markets are discounting an easing in European monetary policy in the forthcoming days. Yet, the mood in the ECB is far from cheerful. It feels being dragged into action by political constraints.
MADRID | By J.P. Marín Arrese | Europe faces the daunting challenge of sailing to the safe shore, with little growth in sight. Southern economies, save Spain, are struggling to scramble out of recession. Others such as France seem stuck in a perilous no man’s land. Only Germany seems endowed with enough stamina for securing a healthy path, even if its performance looks rather lacklustre when matched with the one the US is witnessing.