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European economy 8th November 2023

Germany’s new drop in industrial production, down -1.4% in September, again fuels fears of protracted recession

Bankinter : Industrial Production falls more than expected in September and remains in negative territory for the fifth consecutive month. Industrial Production (September) falls -1.4% m/m against -0.1% expected and -0.1% previous (revised from -0.2%). By items: Manufacturing & Mining -1.7%; Intermediate Goods -1.9%; Capital Goods -0.2%; Consumer Goods (-4.9%); Energy -1.7%; Construction 0%. Assessment: Again, another bad Industrial Production reading, one that will once again fuel fears of a…

European economy 6th November 2023

Ryanair posts adjusted net profit of €1.515bn in fiscal Q2 and announces €0.35/share dividend this year

Bankinter : The airline reports solid 1H fiscal results and announces dividend payment. Key figures versus market consensus (Bloomberg): Revenues €4,926M (+23%) vs €4,874M estimated; EPS (adjusted) €1,515M (+26%) vs €1,493M estimated; EPS (adjusted) €1.324 vs €1.337. Passengers reached €105.4M (+11%) and Occupancy Rate 95%. Prices are +24% higher than last year. Highlights: (i) Announces that it will pay a dividend this year of €400M (€0.35/share), which represents a dividend…

European economy, In Europe 6th November 2023

Euro area aggregate GDP falls by one-tenth of a percentage point in 3Q23, highlighting credit tightening

Intermoney| Euro area aggregate GDP fell by one-tenth of a percentage point in 3Q23, highlighting the transmission of tighter credit conditions. But we should not magnify the stumble of the aggregate if we take into account that Germany, which accounts for 30% of GDP, fell by -0.3% q/qtr. However, we see a series of favourable factors for the EMU countries’ economies to hold up at moderate rates over the coming…

European economy, In Europe 2nd November 2023

German GDP falls as CPI slows

Bankinter| Germany’s economy and inflation surprised positively in 3Q23. GDP declined -0.3% year-on-year in the period compared to -0.7% expected and +0.0% previous (it was revised up from -0.2%). On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth was -0.1% compared to -0.2% expected and +0.1% previously (revised from +0.0%). On the CPI side, the headline rate rose by +3.8% year-on-year compared to +4.0% expected and +4.5% previously. On a month-on-month basis, inflation was…

European economy 30th October 2023

EU directive to claw back excess exemptions on foreign dividends would save taxpayers €5.17 billion a year

Banca March | Last July, the European Commission published the proposal for the so-called Faster directive, to achieve more efficient taxation of European capital market returns. At the Congress of the Association of Tax Inspectors held late last week, the Spanish Ministry of Finance shared its progress towards a regulation that would free investors from tedious processes to recover excess withholding taxes. The Treasury hopes that Ecofin will be able…

European economy 25th October 2023

Iberdrola sells 49% of East Anglia 3 offshore wind farm to Masdar for €2 billion

Banco Sabadell| According to press reports, Iberdrola has agreed to give Masdar (the renewable energy arm of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund) a stake in its East Anglia 3 offshore wind project in England. The project, with a capacity of 1,400 MW, began construction in 2022 and is scheduled to run until 2026. The deal values the project at €4 billion and Masdar would acquire up to 49% for €2…

European economy, In Europe 25th October 2023

Business confidence in Germany and France still showing weakness

BancaMarch: Business confidence indicators in Germany and France this morning continue to show weakness in growth in the coming months. In Germany, the composite PMI deteriorated more than expected, falling back to 45.8 from 46.4 and below the 46.7 expected. This performance was mainly explained by a sharp drop in confidence in the German services sector (48 vs. 50.3 previously) while manufacturing continued to contract (40.7 vs. 39.6 previously). In…

European economy, In Europe 24th October 2023

Eurozone public debt falls to 90.3% of GDP, deficit remains at 3.3%

CdM| In the second quarter, public debt in the euro area fell to 90.3% of GDP compared with the previous quarter, while the government deficit remained at 3.3% of GDP, according to data from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office. In the EU, the government debt ratio also declined, from 83.4% to 83.1% of GDP. For both the euro area and the EU, the decline in the government debt-to-GDP ratio is…

European economy 22nd October 2023

Adidas reports gross margin improvement (+20 bps) in preliminary results, thanks to positive destocking management

Banc Sabadell| Adidas announced better preliminary 3Q23 results with LfL sales growth of +1% (-6.4% reported against -7.6% consensus) and EBIT of €409m (-27.5% against -53.5% consensus), thanks to a better gross margin evolution (c.+20 bps in 3Q23), Yeezy sales and a better-than-expected evolution of the rest of the businesses. All this allows them to raise again the 2023 guidance to a low single digit LfL decline in sales (as…

European economy 29th September 2023

EMU CPI comes out better than expected, both headline (4.3%) and core (4.5%) rates

Bankinter: Inflation has fallen significantly and more than expected in September. The General Rate stands at +4.3% against +4.5% expected and +5.2% previously. In the month-on-month comparison, inflation has risen more than expected,+1.7% against 1.3% expected and +0.2% previously. The Underlying Rate, which excludes the most volatile items of the indicator, stands at +4.5% against +4.8% expected and +5.3% previously. By components, energy is the one that has most contributed…

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