Caixabank Research | The strength of economic activity in Q3 is confirmed, but there are growing signs of a slowdown. It has been confirmed that in Q3 2022 GDP grew by 4.9%, with positive contributions from both domestic and foreign demand of2.9 and 2.0 pps, respectively. In the short term, we expect to see a slowdown in economic activity, especially over the winter months, due to the impact of the…
Fernando González Urbaneja & Luis Martí | Agustín Carstens, Managing Director of the Bank for International Settlements, Basel (BIS), explains that “I think this is a change of era. While it is true that it may coincide with a change of cycle, I believe we are facing a change of era for several reasons. There are structural factors that helped us during the last few years, since before the global…
A record six (mostly extraordinary) meetings were held in the end and the last one produced a white smoke: an agreement to impose a €180 cap on the price of imported gas. The new ‘gas market correction mechanism’ will operate with a double safety key. It will be triggered automatically when, for 3 consecutive days, the price on the Dutch TTF market reaches 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). But…
Annalisa Piazza (MFS Investment Management) | The ECB is committed to continue to increase rates significantly, at a steady pace and to keep rates in restrictive territory until the medium inflation target returns to target. The central bank announced that it will start quantitative tightening (QT) related to the APP at the beginning of March 2023, with a “measured and predictable pace”, allowing the Eurosystem balance sheet to decline by…
In Europe, in November, the fall in natural gas demand was 19%, much more than the 15% drop estimated by the EU. In addition, November is the first month in which we can see how the residential and commercial segment is reacting to higher energy prices. Demand from the industrial customer has already been falling for several months (-28% vs 5 year average) and has not been surprising. But the…
Alphavalue/ Divacons | The Catalan lender has received binding offers from France’s Worldline and Italy’s NEXI for its payment business which it put up for sale in September. The offers are between 300 and 350 million euros, with that from Worldline (part of our model portfolio) seeming to be the highest. Sabadell is said to be looking for 400 million euros.
Bankinter | The European Commission (EC) has authorised the entry of Vauban Infrastructure Partners and Crédit Agricole in Telefónica’s rural fibre optic affiliate. The company, called Bluevia, will have the 3.5 million premises which has the group’s fibre optic and will roll out an additional 1.5 million fibre optic connections in the next two years. Bluevia will also signs provision of services contracts with Telefónica. The consortium formed by Vauban and CA…
Banco Sabadell | According to press reports, Iberdrola has put up for sale a minority stake (49%) in the offshore wind farm Baltic Eagle in Germany (476 MW, with the start of construction expected for 2023, becoming operational in 2024). The wind farm could be valued at 1.5 billion euros (1.1% EV) of which Iberdrola would obtain 750 million. Valuation: The sale of minority holdings to fund renewables expansion is…
Syp Wynia (Atlantic Sentinel) | The Netherlands should consider exiting the euro, argues Lex Hoogduin, a former director of the country’s central bank. Hoogduin, now a professor of financial markets at Groningen University, points out in an interview with Wynia’s Week that the nineteen countries that share the euro have broken almost all the rules they agreed in the 1990s, when the currency was introduced. High inflation and low interest…
Bankinter | Ferrovial is interested in participating in the development of the new airport in Warsaw, which will be located between the Polish capital and the city of Lodz. The project is valued at around 8 billion euros and the Spanish firm has put itself forward to invest in it, along with other partners. Analyst team’s view: Good news for Ferrovial. The operation would make strategic sense, as it would…