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European economy

green new deal

European economy, European politics, Relevant News Item 4th February 2023

EU seeks to emulate one of IRA’s advantages, simplicity of access, by streamlining green investment tax credits

Banco Sabadell: According to press reports, the EU plans to respond to the US $369 billion (€340 billion) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by relaxing state aid rules on tax credits for green investments. A portion of the €800 billion NGEU fund could also be directed towards tax credits. By relaxing restrictions on tax credits, the EC seeks to emulate one of the advantages of the IRA, simplicity of access. The…

ECB's president Christine Lagarde

European economy 2nd February 2023

ECB hikes policy rates by 50bp

Annalisa Piazza (MFS Investment Management) | The ECB hiked policy rates by 50bp and pre-committed to hike by another 50bp in March. The depo rate now stands at 2.50%. Looking ahead, the ECB is widely committed to keep rates in restrictive territory to reach the inflation target in the medium term. The overall communication by the ECB remains relatively hawkish as the policy stance remains restrictive. That said, the market…

fata morgana

European economy, Markets 2nd February 2023

The Fata Morgana, or how markets ignore that the greatest risk for 2023 lies in overestimating economic growth

Banca March | Sometimes, when the sun’s rays hit the sea water and there is a big difference in temperature, an optical illusion takes place which creates visual effects that can lead us to think that a boat is capable of “flying” several metres above the horizon. This effect, a mirage, is called Fata Morgana. Is this effusive start to 2023, in which global stock markets are up more than…

REE-grids

European economy 1st February 2023

January electricity price in Spain (€70/MWh) half that of large European economies (€140/MWh)

ASE Group | Renewable generation reached 13,559 GWh in January, beating its previous record in March 2018 (13,204 GWh). The pull from wind and hydro has allowed renewables to respond to 65.1% of electricity demand, its highest mark to date. Wind power leads the mix with 32.4% of the total, after producing 38.1% more than a year ago. Meanwhile, hydroelectric power increased by 94.2% compared to a year ago, according…

EuroStoxx50 1

European economy 31st January 2023

Consensus remains optimistic, expecting +1.3% for Euro Stoxx 600 EPS.

Santander Corporate & Investment : First serious test for credit markets. After the several buckets of cold water coming from the Fed and the ECB since Jackson Hole, the last one in mid-December, here comes a new test for the markets. And especially in the US in view of the 50bp cut still expected for 2H23. And with the equity market still not clear on the S&P500, with 70% of…

Veronik Grimm

European economy, European politics, Interviews 28th January 2023

Veronika Grimm: “the high costs of fossil energies represent a stimulus to accelerate the transformation towards renewable energies”

Lidia Conde (Francfort) | Veronika Grimm (Rendsburg, Germany, 1971) sits on the German Federal Government’s Advisory Council of Economists, which analyses the country’s economic development on the basis of scientific criteria and publishes a report every autumn in which it expresses its analyses and forecasts. Following its opinion, the government in turn responds to the council’s recommendations. Now, Grimm predicts that the economy of the continent’s leading power will shrink…

recession

European economy 27th January 2023

Good European data bolster hopes of avoiding recession

Portocolom AV | The US index of leading indicators, which hit a new low on Monday 23rd, seems to indicate that the US economy will enter recession in 2023. This indicator, which includes key economic data with the aim of predicting the rate of growth, has historically had a very high success rate in anticipating recessions. This has been the case in previous crises, such as the Covid-19 crisis, the…

BrexitBanderolas

European economy 26th January 2023

Could the worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years be a leading indicator for the Eurozone?

Santander Corporate & Research | The worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years, since the 2021 confinements, puts a clear question mark over the sustainability of an expected EZ economic recovery that explains the good momentum in credit markets. True, with these PMIs already above 50pt for the first time since June and the third consecutive month of improvement, our economists believe that the EZ may be able…

frankreich deutschland 130 v gseagaleriexl

European economy, In Europe 25th January 2023

Confidence in German economy improves. Ifo business climate index rises to 90.2 points in January, up from 88.6 in December

Ifo | This is due to considerably less pessimistic expectations. However, companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current situation. The German economy is starting the new year with more confidence. In the manufacturing sector, the index continued its upward trajectory. Companies assessed their current situation as better. Their expectations for the next six months are also noticeably better. The volume of orders is decreasing but remains at a high…

Eurozone

European economy, In Europe 25th January 2023

Eurozone activity returns to growth: composite PMI stands at 50.2 in January

CdM: This is what the PMI index data released on Tuesday by S&P Global shows. “Eurozone business activity increased slightly in the first month of 2023, signalling a hesitant return to growth after six consecutive months of decline.” Specifically, the Flash Eurozone Total Activity Composite PMI Index came in at 50.2 (49.3 in December), registering a seven-month high. This figure indicates “the first – albeit only modest – expansion in…