According to the analysis published in its latest Economic Outlook, Crédito y Caución forecasts that the final data on world trade growth in 2021 will confirm that international trade has returned to pre-pandemic levels. After an increase that will be between 8% and 10% in 2021, the credit insurer anticipates that the evolution will slow down to the 5% to 6% ranges for 2022 and 3% to 4% for 2023….
Bankinter | The Turkish banking sector regulator (BDDK) is planning to limit the payment of dividends charged against 2021 results. For the time being, it is an informal recommendation made to the Turkish Banking Association. There is, however, no formal confirmation. Bankinter analyis team’s opinion: The regulator’s intention would be understandable – improve solvency in the face of the weak Lira, which has racked up a fall of >80% vs…
Morgan Stanley | Looking ahead to Q4 results, we expect earnings growth for the sector of 16% Q/Q. This is thanks in part to the fact that the average price of oil in the quarter has been almost $80/bbl (up 9% Q/Q). And in general, the price of natural gas rose to maximum levels, with the prices of NBP up (on average) 87% Q/Q, while those of Asian liquified natural gas…
Scope Ratings ( Thomas Gillet) | The European Commission has started consultations on a draft text for labelling nuclear as a ‘green’ energy source under the EU’s taxonomy for environmentally sustainable activities. If the proposal is approved by the European Parliament and the Council, it would have positive credit implications for France (AA/Stable) given the importance of nuclear in the country’s power mix, climate plan and energy independence. The EU…
Alphavalue | On Friday last week, Electricité de France cut its 2022 nuclear production target by almost -10% to 300-330 TWh, following extended shutdowns at five of its 56 nuclear reactors (7.3 GW). This is coupled with deadlocked NATO-US talks with Russia over the Kremlin’s military presence on the Ukrainian border. The situation means that if there is less nuclear power, the dependence on Russian gas will be greater. Didn’t we see this problem coming in the last three months when Russia upped the ante on Ukraine?
CaixaBank Research (Oriol Aspachs) | No doubt you already have an opinion on this. We constantly hear qualified people emphatically and assertively stating their opinion about our current situation, about where we are headed and, what is even more difficult but much more tempting to predict, about what we have to do to change our destination. The world is overdiagnosed, as CIDOB states in its latest report on the 2022…
Bankinter | Iberdrola has won the lion’s share in the offshore wind auction in the UK, known as Scotwind. The Spanish power company will develop three large scale projects: two of them with floating technology, which they will develop in collaboration with Shell and the third on a fixed structure. The total amount of power awarded to Iberdrola in this auction is 7.000 MW. The areas adjudicated are: Marram Wind,…
The meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Olaf Scholz in Madrid on Monday did not go as expected… at La Moncloa. A lot of green harmony, a lot of social democracy and progressivism. Germany, however, made it clear that the countries of the Union must start withdrawing stimuli and recovering a fiscal discipline suspended by the pandemic: “We look to the past to learn from it and project ourselves into the…
Scope Ratings (Sam Theodore & Keith Mullin)| Regulation is one of the two main drivers of change for the banking industry (the other driver being technology). Supervisory adoption of ML for the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) may in turn change the way the industry and the markets assess bank credit risk. More precisely, the future use by regulators of ML for ICAAP will give a powerful impetus to…
Banc Sabadell | Italian infrastructure firm Atlantia would have made a bid valued at ~1 billion euros for 100% of Yunex (0.7% capitalisation of Siemens), according to Bloomberg. Yunex’s business focuses on mobility signalling. We recall that in the last few months a competitive sale process had started, including participants like KKR or Bridgepoint. This is positive news, although of limited impact, as it was already known that a sale…