The ECB meeting this week should be a non-event, but risks are for a hawkish surprise in tone. We will be all ears on two elements: the timeline and the motivation for the review that starts this week and finishes before the end of 2020.
Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Julius Baer) | The outline of the EU Green Deal, was announced yesterday with an overwhelming price tag underpinning its ambitions.The outline is comprehensive but vague, and the impact is elusive to date. Market forces continue to drive the transition.
(European Views) | The European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services Thierry Breton has rejected claims that relying on European firms in the ongoing 5G network roll-out would cause substantial delays, commenting on rising tensions in Germany over the possible risks posed by Chinese firm Huawei Technologies.
Nick Malkoutzis (Macropolis) |If completed, the project could help diversify the EU’s energy sources and has so far received backing from the European Union and the United States, which has provided political support for the tripartite alliance through the so-called 3+1 process. But what’s the basis for this tripartite [Greece, Cyprus and Israel]? Is it a case of Greece and Cyprus looking for another partner in the region due to a lack of confidence in the US under the Trump administration?
Jean-François Jolivalt (La Française AM) | The more than 40 days of protests and transport strikes in France against the pension reform proposed by the French Government is an unprecedented event in the recent history of France. Strikes are undoubtedly a burden on consumer confidence. However, the population has adapted to the situation thanks to electronic commerce, distance work, carpooling and car sharing, which are all services or alternatives that are now widely accepted and available.
Unemployment rate in the Eurozone in November stood at 7.5%, in line with estimates. This minimum level was reached in June 2019.
Yannis Mouzakis (Macropolis) | In a recent opinion poll by MRB, those surveyed were asked who they would like to see as next Greek President if the incumbent, Prokopis Pavlopoulos is not awarded a second term. Twenty-six percent said they would like to see former prime minister Kostas Karamanlis be appointed Greece’s new head of state.
Ivan Dikov (European Views) | Leftist Zoran Milanovic, a former Prime Minister, has been elected President of Croatia, beating closely right-wing incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. Croatia, which was the last country to join the European Union back in 2013, has just assumed the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU for the first time in its history.
The ECB recently published a paper in which it reviews its monetary policy over the last 20 years. Among other points, the central bank says that interest rates in EMU countries could deepen further into negative territory before being counterproductive.
Nick Malkoutzis (Macropolis) | Leaving behind the crisis has also led to somewhat of a rehabilitation in the relationship between Greeks and Europe’s institutions. According to the latest Eurobarometer, whereas trust in the Greek government and Parliament ranges between 20 and 25 percent, faith in the European Parliament stands at 47 percent, falling to 34 percent for the European Commission. Also, 60 percent of Greeks think the euro is good for their country.