In Europe

European automobiles: entering the next auto decade

European Automobiles: Entering The Next Auto Decade

Bank of America | We think that the next decade in Autos will be all about electrification (global CO2 targets), slower car sales growth, mobility services and a greater focus on cost reforms (material costs, capacity rationalization & personnel costs). Following two years of declining global car sales, we think 2020 could see flat growth. However, we do not believe that this will be enough to offset cost pressures in an industry burdened by high fixed costs (labour) and rising regulatory charges (CO2).


Trump arrives in Europe with a new trade war

Trump Arrives in Europe With a New Trade War

|Profiting from his return to Europe to celebrate the 70th anniversary of NATO, Donald Trump used the platform to launch the opening salvos in a new skirmish in his endlessly improvised “America First” trade wars. This time, Trump claims to be retaliating against France’s effort to resist the unfettered domination of the giant American tech monopolies that have spread across global markets, leaving little margin of maneuver to potential competitors who can’t match their size and reach.

 


The ECB thinks that the European financial system could withstand even lower rates

Popularity Of Fiscal Policy Rises As New European Leadership Shows Up

David Kohl (Julius Baer) | The European political leadership is in transition, with Ursula von der Leyen starting as President of the European Commission and Christine Lagarde as President of the European Central Bank and the Social Democrats in Germany voting for a new leadership. The common denominator of the most recent leadership changes in Europe is more openness towards an expansionary fiscal policy at the expense of austerity, which had been the mantra of the past ten years.


ECB details 1

European Banks Strategy: The monetary policy cacophony

BOfAML | It is difficult for forward guidance to be credible when the institution is discussing whether any of its tools or targets are likely to be around in a few months. Embarking on a wide ranging discussion about monetary policy targets, communication and tools, with 25 relevant ECB board members, guarantees a cacophony. Volatility lies ahead for sure, we think.


boris johnson

UK general election: Of Brexit and fiscal spending plans

D. A. Meier (Julius Baer) | Based on a lead in polls, a Conservative majority is highly likely. Labour’s socialist manifesto seems too radical to spur a full catch-up. A hung parliament remains a considerable risk. After a Conservative victory, a moderate fiscal boost could limit the Brexit fallout. After a Labour win, its political agenda could erode its huge fiscal spending plans, despite a softer Brexit.

 


piraeus port

The dragon’s head roars in Athens

Jens Bastian (MacroPolis) | It was a visit worthy of a plethora of superlatives. The arrival of China’s President Xi Jinping in Athens (November 10-12) was termed a “vote of confidence” for Greece.




xi jinping greece

Sino-Greek engagement: Path to ‘win-win cooperation’ is not always linear

Jens Bastian (MacroPolis) | There are a number of recent examples which illustrate that China’s growing footprint in Greece is not exclusively a success story. Some ambitious projects either remain in the planning stage or have failed, others are delayed; despite the vibrant promotional rhetoric between Athens and Beijing.


Spain inflation

Eurozone’s macro adjustment – (mostly) Checked

The best indicator of activity in the Eurozone is not the PMIs, but the Sentix Index, the investor sentiment meter: although it is true that it is still at low levels, it just experience the highest rise since August 2009.