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bancos europeos europa

European economy, European politics 23rd March 2023

European banks: systemic risk dissipates after Credit Suisse buyout by UBS

Bankinter : The chairman of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, Andrea Enria, highlights the soundness of the sector and considers that the shareholder remuneration policy (average pay-out ~50.0% of NAB) is reasonable. Banking rose +4.79% on Tuesday. Positive highlights: UBS/Switzerland (CHF 19.42; +12.2%); Commerzbank/Germany (CHF 10.02; +7.4%), Sabadell/Spain (CHF 1.07; +7.5%), Unicredit/Italy (CHF 17.42; +6.9%), ING (CHF 11.16; +5.9%) and BBVA/Spain (CHF 6.57; +5.4%). Analyst’s view: Sector fundamentals are good (liquidity,…

swiss deflation2

European economy 23rd March 2023

Switzerland has a problem: its banking system is 4.5 times its GDP

Scope Rating | The unprecedented and last-minute deal, to be completed in the coming weeks, should help contain the financial cost of stabilising the hard-pressed Credit Suisse for the Swiss Confederation and also contain potential spillovers to the wider Swiss economy. The developments highlight the long-standing risks to the economy stemming from the banking system, given its large size relative to the Swiss economy and annual budget. Total assets of…

Banks

European economy, In Europe 21st March 2023

Banks (trading on 0.6x price-to-book-value ratio and 6x price-to-earnings ratio for 2023E) still expect record year in 2023

Dirk Becker (Allianz GI) | Credit Suisse has been seen as the weakest link in the global banking sector for several months, after various scandals and poor management decisions. We think the merger can therefore help to stabilise the global financial system: In our view, UBS are being paid for running down the risky parts of Credit Suisse, and they get to keep the highly profitable Swiss domestic unit in…

Alemania PIB

European economy, In Europe 21st March 2023

Bundesbank: technical recession unavoidable for Germany in 1Q23 but decline could be less than 4Q22’s 0.4%

Link Securities | Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, as reflected in its Monthly Bulletin, expects Germany’s Gross Domestic Product to contract in 1Q2023 relative to the previous quarter. The Bundesbank believes that the productivity of the German economy could fall again in 1Q2023, albeit less sharply than in the previous quarter. According to the bulletin, the German economy recovered at the beginning of 2023 only with difficulty from the sharp…

104415914 GettyImages 670697906.1910x1000

European economy 20th March 2023

ECB to help banking sector, if needed, but considers it strong

Bankinter : The ECB raises the reference rates +50 b.p.: Deposit: +3.00%, Director +3.50% and Credit Marginal +3.75%. In line with what the ECB anticipated in February. However, it does not comment on future steps. It revises its inflation forecasts downwards, to +5.3% in 2023 (vs +6.3% previously estimated), +2.9% in 2024 (vs +3.4% previously) and +2.1% in 2025 (vs +2.3% previously). In her subsequent appearance, Lagarde says that upcoming…

eurozone.a tope

European economy, Relevant News Item 20th March 2023

Eurozone inflation in February confirmed at 8.5%, but underlying climbs to record 5.6%, ECB says it will remain above 2% until 2025

The eurozone’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 8.5% in February, down one tenth of a percentage point from January, according to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, while the underlying rate, which excludes the effect of energy and food, climbed to a record 5.6%. In this way, the year-on-year inflation rate in the euro area accumulates four consecutive months of deceleration and stood at its lowest level since May 2022, before…

credit suisse

European economy 17th March 2023

Credit Suisse: “too big to fail”

After yesterday’s session saw German two, five and thirty-year yields suffer their biggest falls in history, and the ten-year took its biggest cut since 1990; after the Eurozone’s interest rate peak was recalculated at 3.10%; and after the Euro’s biggest intraday fall since the 2020 pandemic; well, finally, the ECB remained unperturbed and raised interest rates by 50 bps, bringing the deposit facility to 3%. In the meantime, however, the…

iberdrola offshore

Companies, European economy, In Europe 16th March 2023

Iberdrola and Haizea Wind Group sign €200m+ contract to supply East Anglia Three wind farm

Alphavalue/Divacons | The chairman of the Spanish utility, Ignacio Sánchez Galán, said that it is necessary to “run” and “accelerate” the commitment to a system based on clean energy so that Europe does not continue “with the anguish” of energy supply that it is experiencing and makes progress towards the self-sufficiency that “renewable energies provide”. On the other hand, Iberdrola (IBE) and Haizea Wind Group signed a contract worth more…

credit suisse

European economy 16th March 2023

Credit Suisse, Sabadell… how mean it is to single them out

The banking tsunami generated by the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank – which the Fed wants to close by offering to buy bonds at par, not at market price, from banks in need of liquidity – threatens to turn into a financial crisis. That is the threat today from markets that are out for blood to stop interest rates rising. The big European banks, such as Santander and BBVA,…

electricidad1CM

European economy, In Europe 15th March 2023

“Marginalism works” reiterates Brussels in proposal for European electricity market

Norbolsa | The European Commission presented the reform of the electricity market, focusing on long-term contracts, as leaked by the Periódico de la Energía magazine. We highlight three aspects of this proposal; firstly, Brussels has made it clear that the current market works, and therefore marginalism will continue to work; secondly, long-term contracts are introduced as requested by the sector with the aim of introducing more stability; and finally, together…