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World economy 16th June 2024

US: Fed shifts rate cut outlook from 2024 to 2025 and 2026 as CPI falls to +3.3% in May

Bankinter: The Fed meets expectations and keeps interest rates (Fed Funds) at 5.25%/5.50%. With respect to the macro picture, it maintains the GDP forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026. However, it revises upwards both Inflation (PCE) and Underlying Inflation in 2025 and 2026 and continues to miss the 2% target until 2026. The Unemployment Rate is also revised slightly upwards in 2025, 2026 and in the longer term. With regard…

World economy 10th June 2024

US employment confirms strength with 272,000 payroll increase

BancaMarch: US employment data again surprises on the upside, although other indicators point to a contained moderation. On Friday, the Payroll Survey revealed an unexpected increase in job creation in May, up to 272,000 jobs, well above the 180,000 estimated and the 175,000 previously reported. The same survey also showed an increase in average hourly earnings of 4.1% year-on-year, up from 3.9% expected and 4% previously. Financial markets have interpreted…

In the World 7th June 2024

US competition authorities open AI market power investigations into Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI

Norbolsa | US competition agencies on Thursday opened market power investigations into artificial intelligence market power at Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI. The Federal Trade Commission will focus on investigating the market power of Microsoft and OpenAI, while the Department of Justice will focus on Nvidia. For the time being, not much impact is expected from the investigation, which we understand is in its early stages and may take time.

World economy 6th June 2024

BoJ Preview: To further adjust policy as early as June even with glass half full

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Recently, the virtuous circle between wages and inflation has begun to strengthen. Following the highest wage hike in the past thirty-three years at the spring wage negotiation, nominal base wage surprised on the upside by rising +2.3% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since July ’94. Furthermore, with inflation expectations remaining above 2%, corporate service prices also picked up by +2.8% year-on-year in April. On…

World economy 5th June 2024

S&P 500 CEOs earn 200 times more than their employees in 2023

Emisores | Senior executives at S&P 500 index companies earned a total salary package in 2023 that was 13% higher than in the previous year, according to an analysis by Associated Press based on data from Equilar. For CEOs, the rise was 12.6%, to an average annual total compensation of $16.3 million – the equivalent of €14.99 million – which was 200 times more than the average salary earned by…

World economy 3rd June 2024

Increasingly clearer landing for US economy: 2Q24 started April with nominal growth of +0.2% but negative real growth of -0.1%.

Santander Research: After a first quarter of surprisingly strong economic data and inflation, April seems to be a slowdown, as indicated by our economists. And that starts with payrolls (175k) and, above all, consumption slowing down, from the explosive +3% growth of 3Q23 and 4Q23 to +2% in 1Q24 after revisions. And what is even clearer, 2Q24 started with April’s nominal growth of +0.2% and even negative in real terms,…

World economy 3rd June 2024

Financial outflow-driven RMB will not help correct China’s external imbalance

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Since the trade war, and in particular after the imposition of US tariffs on China’s electric vehicles and solar panels, market observers have been speculating whether the PBoC will allow further depreciation of the yuan to counteract the impact. The latest RMB movement seems to indicate that this is the case, but the actual situation is more complex than it appears at first glance.The experience…

In the World 31st May 2024

European investors in China are facing weak demand, more competition and tougher regulations

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China has long been a focal point for global companies, European ones included. However, a shift seems to be happening with foreign direct investment (FDI) into China, as it is now plummeting rather than booming. In fact, China’s inward FDI has turned to negative growth for the first time in 25 years. Several questions seem warranted when exploring this phenomenon. Firstly, the deceleration of FDI in…

World economy 30th May 2024

Acerinox ceases activity at Malaysian factory and changes model in Cadiz as prices unsustainable due to Chinese overproduction

Intermoney | The company informed the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) yesterday, with the market closed, the cessation of activity in the factory of Bahru Stainless (Malaysia) and the change in the operation model in the factory of Acerinox Europe, located in Cadiz. Regarding the Malaysian factory, Acerinox has already informed its Asian customers about the cessation and has assured that the supply to these customers will be made, from…

World economy 30th May 2024

New Zealand: Housing market defying headwinds from higher interest rates

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | As the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked aggressively to contain surging inflation, the New Zealand economy fell into a technical recession in 2023. While the recovery in exports has offset the weakness in housing investments, private consumption has softened on the back of households’ higher interest payments. Nevertheless, because inflation was still elevated at +4.0% year-on-year in Q1-24, well above the 1-3% target…

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