World economy

TTIP3

RIP TTIP: Free Trade Is Moribund

The imminent agreement between the EU and the US, called the TTIP, is dying on the side of both the US and Europe. The two candidates for the White House have expressed their scepticism, one with more than the other. And in Europe, only Merkel has stood firm, but this is weakening her politically and taking away her social democrat allies.


emerging economies

EM Compass Points North

BoAML| The emerging market rally of the past six months appears to have paused and needs another theme to resume: we think the exchange rates will be the key issue. Since end-January, emerging market assets have rallied on a compression of excessive cred it risk premiums that were created by the oil and China induced panic.


productivity

Productivity Is Disappearing Off The Scene

The stagnation in European productivity is serious, a tragedy. Labour productivity is the result of dividing the product obtained (some of components of GDP) by the number of hours worked. It can also be calculated dividing by the number of employees, although the different kinds of contracts (part-time, construction contracts etc.) create distortions. The more GDP expands, the more productivity increases. And the more employment rises, the less productivity increases.


climate deal

Climate Deal: A Ratification For The Headlines

Julius Baer Research | Alongside the G20 summit, China and the United States informed that they both ratified the Paris agreement on climate change. The treaty was negotiated and signed under the lead of the United Nations in Paris last December and will go into effect once countries in sum representing at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions ratified the agreement.




MSCI Emerging Markets turns 30.

Emerging Markets: Good-Bye Crisis, Hello Bubble?

BoAML | After the break we maintain our pre-summer bullishness on EM and think an EM bubble is possible by next year given DM policies and improving EM fundamentals. That said, we would wait for the ongoing correction to run its course before adding.


J.Yellen

It Depends On The Data Says The Fed…

J. L. M.Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Fed deputy chairman Fisher said last Tuesday that any future decision on interest  rates will depend, in the end, on the data. The market is now awaiting the US August jobs figures, due out tomorrow. This will be the key indicator anticipating a September rate hike. They say that more than 150,000 new jobs will be a sufficient trigger for the Fed to take its decision this month. And the necessary condition? That the rest