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World economy 31st July 2014

Argentina: Griesa’s ruling sets dangerous precedent in debt restructuring processes

MADRID | The Corner | Many got it all wrong: the problem with Argentina is not the so-called “second default in 12 years,” but U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa’s ruling. The country will need to pay holdouts $1.33 billion plus interest. And that sets an extremely dangerous precedent for future restructuring processes of sovereign debt. No bond-holder will accept a haircut knowing that, at the end of the day, he could ask for the full amount. (Fig left: Argentina’s national reserves; right: sovereign CDS).

 

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World economy 30th July 2014

Find the inequality debate boring? Then check the numbers again

MADRID | The Corner | One of 2014 most commented/loved/bashed books has been Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century”, which put such an old concept as inequality back on the table. The truth is, as inequality is reducing on a global scale, it is increasing within many economies, including emerging countries like China and India. Increasing access to education and electricity in poor countries and areas pays out, as the World Bank is underlining in a campaign (check the video above).

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World economy 30th July 2014

China optimism lifts Asia equities

LONDON | By EM Asia Rates Strategy analyst Rohit Arora | Asian equities continued to march higher, with stocks in Korea and Japan outperforming on the day. The Nikkei’s outperformance, despite weaker-than-expected readings on retail sales and jobless data, was counterintuitive and likely reflects increasing market expectations of BoJ easing. In FX, the NZD was a notable underperformer after Fonterra lowered its 2014-15 milk price forecast to NZD6/kg from NZD7/kg.

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World economy 28th July 2014

In some cases the central bank cannot control inflation…

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | …while in others it cannot promote it! Japan falls in the latter category. According to this article in the WSJ “Japan´s price target looks difficult.” The nationwide core consumer price index rose 1.3% from a year earlier in June, after adjustment for a recent sales-tax hike, below a 1.4% increase the previous month, according to government data released Friday. Inflation moderated in May and June due to falling energy prices and a stable yen, which has put the break on growth in import costs.

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World economy 26th July 2014

UBS: Fed realizes a reverse repo program isn’t the answer

MADRID | The Corner | The continuous U.S. labor market upturn (on average 213K jobs/month were created so far this year) paves the way for the consumption and investment growth. The economy strength and the employment trend enabled the Fed to continue to reduce the QE program even after the weak beginning of the year. But apparently the Fed itself is still far from consensus.

russia sanctions

World economy 25th July 2014

Risk: Geography trumps Economy

WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Geopolitics have returned with a vengeance in Europe right when Barack Obama’s economist view of international relations seemed to be on track with the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The IMF warns that geopolitical risk is back on stage.

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World economy 25th July 2014

How the hammer falls as China nails corruption

BEIJING |By Gao Yu and Wang Heyan via Caixin | Curiosity is one reason the website of the Central Discipline Inspection Commission (CDIC) attracts up to 2 million page views every day. Another reason is fear. Some website visitors, for example, want to know whether they or anyone they know has been targeted by a government campaign to root out corruption led by the CDIC Inspection Team.

japan prices

World economy 24th July 2014

Will the Bank of Japan act again?

MADRID | The Corner | Will the Japanese Central Bank act again to raise inflation expectations and get inflation to reach its target of 2%? Some analysts believe the BoJ should allow the economy to overheat a little in order to promote higher inflation expectations. “Kuroda is convinced that the country will reach its inflation target of 2% in the FY2015,” experts at JP Morgan pointed out on Thursday, “but the help of the yen’s depreciation is fading since expectations of further monetary expansion are lowering too.”