LONDON | By Kevin Norrish at Barclays | What’s all the fuss about? On many occasions over the past few years, oil prices have spiked higher only to fall back rapidly into the prevailing trend of narrow range trading and steadily falling volatility. So is the recent pickup in oil prices anything more than just another blip?
ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | “Samaras rescues Greece” – it’s the headline the prime minister and many in his office would have cherished. But Giorgos Samaras, the striker without a club, has beaten premier Antonis to the title of saviour thanks to his injury time penalty on Wednesday, which ushered Greece into the second round of the World Cup for the first time in its history.
MADRID | The Corner | As global confidence revives and money is in the air, more deals are expected. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, which grew year-on-year to $1.45tn in 2013, will rise to $1.6tn in 2014, $1.75tn in 2015 and $1.85 tn in 2016, according to the last U.N. economic think tank UNCTAD report. Spain is one of the EU’s most benefitted recipients attracting $39 billion from vulture funds, venture capital, billionaire families, pension plans or even sovereign funds.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Ben Bernanke’s warning about a posible withdrawal of Fed monetary stimulus a year ago prompted a notable rise of premium risks and general drops in global stock markets, but deeper in emerging economies. And it indeed hit the so-called BIITS (Brazil, Indonesia, India, Turkey and South Africa). Today, stocks have recovered and stand at levels prior to the taper shock, although some collateral damages are there.
NEW YORK | By Benjamin Cole at Historinhas | The recent historical and empirical record strongly suggests central bank quantitative easing (QE) works. The riddle is whether both the Japan and U.S. economies will slip into stagnation again without QE, as long as there is a global glut of capital holding down interest rates, and inflation is dead—or even if inflation is near 2 percent on the PCE deflator, the putative Fed target. The riddle might even be reframed: When central banks do not conduct QE, are they actively engaged in monetary asphyxiation?
MADRID | By J. J. Fernández-Figares | According to Eurostat, the US became by far the largest foreign investor in the European Union (EU-28) during 2013, with a figure that triples 2010 data. For its part, the second largest foreign investor in 2013 was Brazil, with €21bn.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | The Japan macro trade has been off the radar in 2014, but that should change (for better or worse) in the coming few months. US yields have likely bottomed, while the effect of Japan’s VAT increase appearsmanageable. More important, PM Abe has unveiled more details of his 3rd Arrow (the structuralreform program), including a long-anticipated cut in the corporate tax rate.
MADRID | By Donato Ndongo-Bidyogo | For the last weeks Nigeria has made big headlines due to the kidnapping of more than 200 girls by the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram. Most of the victims remain missing, as the first African economy faces systemic issues that compromise next year elections.
Amid an important devaluation of its currency, and with its central bank rapidly losing reserves, Argentina is entering a critical stage as it attempts to avoid a new economic crisis. In November 2013, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner decided to limit her public appearances and delegate to new ministers. Economy Minister Axel Kicilloff and Chief Minister Jorge Capitanich were tasked with revising the economic course of a government that is starting to show weaknesses. Today, not only is the Argentine public worried, but so too is the international community.
MADRID | By The Corner | The Federal Reserve cut its asset purchase plan by $10,000 million more, as expected. Experts at Bankinter Broker point that from now on the FED will buy $20,000 million in treasury bonds and $15,000 million in MBS every month.