Morgan Stanley | Grifols (GRF) will hold its Investor Day on June 30. We expect to hear on the following main topics:
(i) Estimates on plasma growth (both consensus and ourselves already expect 20-25% growth in 2022, above 2019 levels, and see little chance of increases in the numbers).
(ii) Greater visibility on the new launches from Biotest, fibrinogen and IgM which could be delayed.
(iii) Leverage (competitive disruption and the smaller contribution from Biotest products mean our estimates are below those of consensus. We do not consider the valuation to be attractive with 7x net debt/Ebitda 2022, weak Free Cash Flow generation and yield of 5%. And an improved risk/return with other ideas like Almirall).
Recommendation: Equalweight; Target Price 20 euros/share.