Grifols’s valuation not attractive at 7x net debt/Ebitda 2022 and weak cash generation; better risk/return with others like Almirall

GrifolsGrifols valuation not attractive

Morgan Stanley | Grifols (GRF) will hold its Investor Day on June 30. We expect to hear on the following main topics:

(i) Estimates on plasma growth (both consensus and ourselves already expect 20-25% growth in 2022, above 2019 levels, and see little chance of increases in the numbers).

(ii) Greater visibility on the new launches from Biotest, fibrinogen and IgM which could be delayed.

(iii) Leverage (competitive disruption and the smaller contribution from Biotest products mean our estimates are below those of consensus. We do not consider the valuation to be attractive with 7x net debt/Ebitda 2022, weak Free Cash Flow generation and yield of 5%. And an improved risk/return with other ideas like Almirall).

Recommendation: Equalweight; Target Price 20 euros/share.

About the Author

The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.