The cross-market context of bond sell-off

peripheral FX-hedged yields

Of course, this does not mean that euro area yields will remain at these levels in the near term, but it does lend some support to our year-end 10yr Bund yield forecast of 0.90%.

The table above outlines 10yr yields in a number of government bond markets, currency-hedged with 12m FX forwards for investors in various domiciles.

The hedged yield advantage of US Treasuries has fallen lately, but remains significant. French and UK bonds tied for second place, followed by Swiss and Dutch bonds. German Bunds still appear unattractive as an outright purchase. To be fair, Bunds do yield significantly more than Japanese and Australian bonds when FX-hedged.

Unlike a couple of months ago, euro area peripherals now offer substantially higher FX-hedged yields than all other markets in our sample.

About the Author

The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.

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