SpaceX is preparing to go public with a valuation of $1.75 trillion without ever having published its audited accounts. Elon Musk’s company controls over 80% of US orbital launches and has more than 10 million Starlink subscribers, yet it is set to trade at 110 times its annual sales.
Analysed by Franco Macchiavelli
SpaceX is preparing for its IPO with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, a figure higher than Spain’s GDP, without ever having published its audited accounts. Elon Musk’s company controls more than 80% of US orbital launches and has over 10 million Starlink subscribers, yet it is set to be valued at 110 times its annual sales—a price that requires Starship, orbital data centres and space tourism to scale up simultaneously within a reasonable timeframe. Added to this is an unprecedented stock market mechanism, as the world’s major indices have amended their rules to admit SpaceX almost immediately following its debut, which would force hundreds of billions in passive funds to buy its shares automatically and at any price, with a free float of barely 5 to 10%. An architecture which, according to analyst Franco Macchiavelli, is designed to benefit its insiders as much as any retail investor.
The figure of $1.75 trillion that Musk expects the market to pay for SpaceX when it goes public this summer exceeds Spain’s GDP and triples the value of all the companies in the Ibex 35 combined. There is, however, one detail that should not be overlooked. SpaceX has never published its audited accounts. In other words, the company that aspires to be the most valuable in history has never shown its homework.
That is why it is worth analysing the whole picture with a certain degree of perspective. SpaceX is, genuinely, one of the most important companies in the world. It has reduced the cost of sending a kilogram into space from $15,000 in 2008 to less than $1,000 today, and controls more than 80% of all orbital launches in the United States. Its Starlink satellite network has over ten million subscribers worldwide and is the only segment of the business generating real and sustained profits. Added to this are military contracts accumulated since 2008 worth over $24 billion and the acquisition of xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, in February 2026.
Nevertheless, the problem remains the price. At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would be trading at approximately 110 times its annual sales. For that valuation to make any sense, one would have to assume that, simultaneously, Starship becomes a mass commercial transport, solar-powered orbital data centres replace terrestrial ones, and space tourism scales up to the point of making Mars a viable business. All of this at the same time and within reasonable timeframes.
Musk’s track record calls for caution. His promises are public and verifiable, and the data confirms this. Four arrival dates for Mars were announced and none were met; last year, 25 Starship flights were planned and only five took place. None of this invalidates the project, but it does require applying a reasonable discount to anything that still smacks of a promise.
There is also a technical dimension that is worth understanding, as it will have a decisive influence not only on share prices but on the indices themselves. In the space of a few weeks, four of the most influential bodies in the financial world, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, the FTSE Russell and the CRSP, have amended their inclusion rules to allow companies such as SpaceX to enter their indices almost immediately after going public. This is unprecedented.
This is no minor matter. Index funds, where the vast majority of savers have their money, would be obliged to buy any company included in the index, without prior analysis, without negotiation and at whatever price. The more than $500 billion tracking the Nasdaq through passive funds would flood into SpaceX with massive, automatic purchases in the very month of its debut.
The added problem is that SpaceX plans to put between 5 and 10 per cent of its shares into circulation, a very small free float. The combination of mandatory demand and scarce supply would mean that the price would not be set by the market but by scarcity. Something similar happened in 2023 with VinFast, which went public with barely 1 per cent free float. The share price soared by 700% in a matter of days, but anyone who bought at the peak of $90 has now accumulated a loss of 95% of their capital. Under current Nasdaq rules, VinFast would have entered the index on the 15th itself.
When the 180-day lock-up period expires in December, Nasdaq will coincidentally carry out its quarterly rebalancing. If the percentage of shares in circulation exceeds 20%, the index would recalculate SpaceX’s weighting upwards and funds would be obliged to buy back in. That would mean that major shareholders, who control between 90 and 95% of the shares and who until then had been unable to sell, could place their holdings with funds that would have no capacity to refuse.
A prudent strategy might be to wait until after the lock-up expires in December, when the mechanical effects have dissipated and the price better reflects reality.
Companies benefiting indirectly
When SpaceX filed its IPO application in early April, several companies within the same ecosystem—less well-known but directly related—soared by between 10% and 20% in a single trading session. This movement can be interpreted as a sentiment indicator, as investors seek exposure to the event before the main player arrives.
Rocket Lab, SpaceX’s most serious competitor in medium-sized launches, rose by over 60% during April and is currently battling at all-time highs against resistance at $94.
AST SpaceMobile, which also has a direct agreement with SpaceX to launch its satellites on the company’s rockets, rose by more than 30% since 1 April. It has given back all of that gain and is currently in a consolidation phase, although it maintains a long-term upward trend.
EchoStar is perhaps the closest proxy to SpaceX among listed stocks. In 2025, it sold radio spectrum to SpaceX for $17 billion and received direct shares in the company in return, making it today the only listed stock with real equity exposure to SpaceX prior to the IPO.
For those seeking direct yet diversified exposure, the UFO ETF brings together several of these companies with a mix of sector exposure across industry, communications and technology, all with a similar narrative. Since 2024, it has shown a clear upward trend, particularly since breaking through the $30 resistance level, and has remained above the 200-day moving average with relative strength.
The fact that SpaceX is an extraordinary company and that its IPO is designed to benefit its major shareholders are not contradictory realities but perfectly compatible ones. If the rules are rewritten for a single company and the indices are influenced even before its debut, the relevant question is not whether SpaceX is worth what is being asked for, but who will pay that difference when the time comes.
