Bankinter: The European Commission has revised its growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024. downwards GDP: +0.6% and +1.2% in 2023 and 2024 vs. +0.8% and +1.3% previously. CPI: +5.6% and +3.2% vs. 5.6% and +2.9% previously. (ii) Industrial Production showed weakness again in September: -6.9% vs. -6.3% expected and -5.1% previously.
Assessment: The downward revision by the European Commission shows the slowdown of the economy registered by some macroeconomic indicators such as Industrial Production. These data reinforce the idea that we have reached the end of the rate hike cycle and that the next move will be downwards. In fact, the market is already discounting rate cuts in 2Q23.